Today

I’m on my way down to the Red River area. I’m driving so I can’t type much until I reach my target. Everything is shifted south this morning and it looks like convection north of the warm front will keep the boundary in the vicinity of the Red River. I’m still planning on targeting off the northeast side of the dryline bulge area. The surface pattern is still a bit unclear, so my plan for now is to drive south to about Ardmore and I’ll make a decision there whether I’m going south a little farther or cutting back west a bit. I’m thinking I want to setup some place between Gainseville, TX and Waurika, OK. I’m not at all optimistic about the tornado potential. Short term hi res model guidance and visible satellite have me concerned that storms are going to develop early and it’s going to be sloppy with quite a few storms. It’s Friday though and it doesn’t look like there will be any chasing next work week, so I’m in. I need to get it out of my system and I’m desperate for another tornado before May to boost my confidence after botching my target the last two chases.┬áMy hope for today is that we’ll get one or two more dominant storms that have somewhat undisturbed inflow over the southern Oklahoma/N Texas area this afternoon that I want to try to intercept as they move into enhanced low level shear along the warm front. I’m just starting to look at data so give me a little more time to work on it and then I’ll try to get another update posted.

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