Forecast Update

Day 1 Sunday Map

Above is an updated map. Not much change to the going forecast other than I think dewpoints will be in the low 60’s this afternoon which will temper the tornado threat a bit from what the NAM has been forecasting. I am getting ready to leave town now to head east towards Greensburg, then I’ll probably cut south a bit. Models have consistently been putting stronger convergence out there and shown storms developing this afternoon. I think a decision will have to be made as to whether you take a more dominant storm on the northern end that will track more towards Salina, or do you drop south and hope for a more tail end storm along the OK/KS border. I’m leaning towards the latter, but I’ll make my mind up in the coming hours.

I still think a strong tornado or two are possible this afternoon, particularly around 7pm when the low level shear ramps up. I don’t think it will be a deal where every storm is producing strong tornadoes like it could have been if the NAM was telling the truth. I think SPC’s 10% hatched is right on track (even though they dropped the hatched for northern Oklahoma). There will most likely only be a handful of storms, so we aren’t talking really tight storm coverage today, except for maybe over central Kansas. My hope and thinking is that will accommodate the strong tornado threat out of one or two storms that have undisturbed inflow later in the day, which is a big reason why I’m leaning towards the OK/KS border area rather than going farther north into central Kansas.

Little concerned that this morning crapvection is still lingering across northern Oklahoma into Kansas, which could limit the width of the CAPE tongue and how instability storms have to work with. It needs to clear out soon so we can start getting good heating. It may actually be a blessing and hold storms off until a little later in the day. Time will tell. Better clearing is taking place in southwest Oklahoma and a cu field is already starting to build in down there. I only glanced at that area, but there may be a weak OFB near Altus running NE to SW. That is something I’d probably keep an eye on through the day. Take that with a grain of salt though because my focus has been on Kansas.

I’m hitting the road now. I’m not driving today so I should be able to update with mesoscale details as the day unfolds, so check back if you’re interested.

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