Sorry for the silence lol. I had a busy morning and then was driving all day pretty much until I got on a storm so I didn’t have much time to post and didn’t feel like I had a lot to say anyway. I kind of winged it today. I had to take a major detour after last night’s chase to get to my hotel because the road was flooded after I pulled off the storm. Didn’t get to bed until around 2am. Had to see a man about a horse this morning so I didn’t get out of Burlington until 2pm. I wanted to make the Texas panhandle, but I knew there was no way but I did make it far enough south to watch the tornadic supercell NW of Garden City first develop. I tracked along with that storm all afternoon until it go NW of Garden City and the road options went to shit. I was pissed. I followed right along in the notch of that storm until I made a bad road choice and went north east of Deerfield instead of at Deerfield. I had to take back roads which were incredibly muddy. It was fine for a while and they had a little rock to them, but then I hit some really sloppy roads as the rotation really picked up in the storm. I was tracking along just southeast of the occlusion in the notch of the storm, so as the roads got real bad I had to stop. I knew there was a solid 50/50 shot I was going to get stuck if I kept going and it wasn’t worth it for an HP storm that would be tough to see the tornado on anyway (and always a bit scary going in on an HP storm with shitty roads since the winds are usually violent). So basically I missed a couple tornadoes today because of incredibly muddy roads. And it’s not looking like that will change for tomorrow lol.
I just started looking at data so I won’t say much until morning runs. I’m staying at a hotel in Dodge City so I’m already close to my target for tomorrow which will likely be the dryline bulge/triple point area in far NW Oklahoma into southern Kansas. I should have plenty of time to forecast in the morning. I need to hit this one hard and make god damn sure I deliver tomorrow. I missed a great tornadic storm by Big Springs Texas tonight. Little pissed about that. I need to redirect that into focus for tomorrow lol. Anyway, a triple point near SW Kansas, dryline bulge east of there and the dryline extending south through the Texas panhandle will be the focus for storms tomorrow. I don’t think the NAM has a good handle on the extent of tonight’s storms over Oklahoma, so that is giving me a little hesitation on believing much about precip tonight/tomorrow morning. It does appear that we will get very strong instability ahead of the dryline tomorrow, with SBCAPE off the charts by afternoon. Low level shear will be quite strong and it will also be strong early in the afternoon near the dryline bulge, which is always a relief to me. It seems like the days where strong low level shear is already in place and you’re not waiting for the nocturnal LLJ to ramp up are much more reliable about producing. So we have great thermodynamics and good low level shear. The one big thing we don’t have going for us is strong upper level SR winds. That hurts and it means storms will probably want to go HP after a period of time. I hate HP storms, especially on a 5k CAPE day lol. Being in the bears cage on a storm in that environment when it has strong rotation and goes HP has ass kicking written all over it lol. The idea of that ass kicking is already in my head. I just pray to god we have decent roads to work with tomorrow. I’ve been on sloppy mud roads the last two nights. I’ll post a pic of my car tomorrow morning. It is covered in mud and that’s after cleaning it this morning. Back to the topic at hand, I think that the weak SR upper level winds is what’s keeping this from being a higher end tornado event. Everything else is there so long as precip clears and we get good clearing. Dewpoints are in the 70’s just south of precip in Oklahoma and that should work up here tomorrow. That may be the first really juicy moisture we’ve gotten this year into the central plains. I do think we’re looking at a solid tornado threat tomorrow, but I think a good deal of the potential will be mitigated by storms becoming HP beasts. I think we’ll get some tornadoes out of them before that happens to though.
I didn’t look at Thursday’s setup, but I still think the strong upper level winds and high quality moisture point to higher end potential than we’ll see in the days leading up to it. Although we are managing to get good tornadic storms even with these slightly troubled setups.
Anyway, I need to get some sleep. I’ll post in the morning with my thoughts on the tornado threat and my target.