Update

I drank quite a bit of vodka last night and am dragging ass this morning as a result. Didn’t get out of bed until a little after 11am and have been battling a hangover ever since. Due to my condition, I have only glanced over model data. I need to go clean up my car and get everything ready for chasing this week and then I have a mothers day dinner at 6, so I’m going to wait until later tonight to post a forecast. The NAM has trended a little closer towards the GFS, which is good news for Tuesday if you want tornados. The NAM now at least has some convection developing along the dryline and the high resolution NAM has storms developing all along the dryline. I honestly was never worried about getting storms though so that’s no big relief for me at least. I still think there is a pretty decent shot at a few tornadic supercells on Tuesday. It’s not a real good setup. The thermodynamics and shear profiles are pretty so so with this one, but they are good enough to support tornadic supercells, especially in the 6-9pm window as low level shear ramps up and hodographs enlarge. I’ll get into a little more detail with tonight’s forecast map and put the surface boundaries and area I intend to target on there. I still think the area around the KS/OK border looks the best for tornadoes. Anyway, sorry for not posting this morning but I’m in no shape for deep though and evaluating model data. I need to save that for later today after the liquor has worked it’s way through my system lol.

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