Forecast Update

051417 Wednesday May 16 Forecast Map

Just looked over 12Z NAM run and no changes to the going forecast. My previous map posted above is still on track. The 12Z run of the NAM has actually strengthened low level shear around 00Z and the NAM is holding extremely steady with discrete supercells going up in the NE Texas panhandle and tracking northeast into Kansas during the evening. SPC and other formal forecast outlets (media) are still keeping pretty quiet on the tornado potential. That shakes your confidence a little bit when your thinking doesn’t line up with theirs, but I learned a long time ago it’s better to feel like an ass putting your own opinion out there and being wrong than it is to hold your tongue and realize after the fact that you wouldn’t have looked like an idiot. That being said, I’m all in on this one and shoveling coal on the hype train #choochoomotherfuckers lol.

One minor issue is that hodographs have been showing some backing up around 500mb after 00Z. 1km SRH is a little bit better in recent runs before 7pm, with the NAM showing around 150 over the area in question. 0-1km SRH and 1km shear blow up after 00Z and with adequate moisture (which I think we’ll have), thermodynamics in conjunction with solid shear profiles should be favorable for a strong tornado threat before the boundary layer decouples later in the evening.

I am also afraid my fears of outrageous chaser convergence is going to come true with this one. At least in my opinion, there isn’t much question where the best tornado potential will be. The high resolution NAM is the only model data I’ve seen that would make you question targeting the area I boxed in red. It doesn’t show much in the way of UH tracks and what it does show isn’t coming out of the NE Texas panhandle. I put little stock in that through at this stage and I plan on going where the parameters are best, regardless of what the high resolution NAM is selling. Anyway, this is setting up for a grade A shit show of chaser convergence.

I’ll be keeping an eye on model data and update regularly, so check back if you’re interested. My initial target is looking like some place near Laverne, Oklahoma. I’ll look at data and probably adjust a little bit from there to the SW, but that looks like a good downstream starting point with good road options.

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