g13_2017136_1715_ABI_visForecast seems on track still except for I think the strongest tornado potential may stay mostly south of the Kansas border. That may change if convection unfolds differently than short range model guidance and satellite would suggest. Kansas would still have a solid tornado threat, especially with any tail end storms tracking through closer to the border where they have unobstructed inflow from the south. That being said, I just think the strongest tornado potential may stay a hair south of the Kansas border down into SW Oklahoma (see red box on the map).

Blow off from towers is evident on satellite right now in the northeast texas panhandle, so expect storms to fire before too long up there. The HRRR has that initial development pushing northeast into Kansas and possibly becoming a little cluttered as it does. Additional development is expected along the dryline and those storms developing near Amarillo and south of there along the dryline will likely pose the greatest tornado threat, including strong tornadoes. I am running a little late so it is going to be tight for me. I’d like to be in Borger, Texas right now, but instead I’m still up by Minneola cutting south so my options may be limited. Should have got out of town a little earlier, but I had to work this morning. Conditions won’t be real favorable for tornadoes until a few hours from now, but I imagine any storms developing near Amarillo could pose a tornado threat earlier in the afternoon. I’ll try to update again if I can. Good luck if you’re out.

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