The warm front is pushing into Wichita right now. The feeling in the air is about to change real quick as this happens. Dewpoints will jump about 20 degrees and it’s going to start to feel like a tornado day as the sun breaks through. The warm front coming through Wichita is a couple hours later than previous model guidance from the NAM suggested. That in addition to a couple reasons has me leaning towards the 06Z high resolution NAM guidance which puts the triple point slightly farther southeast than previously thought. This would serve to increase the tornado threat for Wichita IMO. Still some uncertainty regarding convective evolution today, which is the primary uncertainty regarding the extent of this tornado outbreak. I am just now getting into model data, so give me a couple hours to look over things and then I’ll get my forecast map updated. See my previous post from last night for details. My thinking regarding the extent of the threat and how it will play out is still the same, just a modest adjustment southeast with the surface pattern is all I’m thinking right now.
For those in south central Kansas and Wichita, this is the first high risk for Wichita issued by the Storm Prediction Center in 5 years. The last time we had a high risk is the night Wichita got hit by an EF3 tornado in 2012. If storms are discrete this afternoon, it will be a deadly serious threat. Pay close attention to the weather and take warnings seriously. There are only one or two days a year where parameters come together like this and pose a major threat to life and property. This is one of them. Watch KWCH for coverage. We will have the entire chase team out and they are staffing news crews across the threat area. There is a reason KWCH is number one. Although I’m biased, KWCH hands down has the best severe weather coverage in Kansas. Plus I’ll be on there so that’s where you want to go for weather information lol.
I will update again regularly today so check back for additional details.