Extended Forecast

052217 Forecast Map Project

I’m going to keep this short tonight because I’m tired and I still think we are a day or two out from really getting into any detail. The NAM will pick up on Friday’s setup tomorrow morning, so I want to see that before I start getting too bold with my forecast posts.

It still looks like Friday and Saturday will both be chase days. High quality moisture with dewpoints as high as the low 70’s with extreme instability are the big assets with this setup. Mid and upper level flow won’t be all that strong (exception possibly being along the mid level jet axis on Saturday), but deep layer should be strong enough for supercells given the strong instability that should be in place. Low level shear is good enough, but not great too. The strongest low level shear will probably be located near the dryline bulge and warm front in NE Oklahoma on Saturday, where hodographs look quite favorable for tornadic supercells. The big concern for Friday looks to be a strong cap, however the GFS has been consistent in breaking out precip near the dryline bulge in NE Oklahoma. If we can get sustained storms, which is a big if at this point, tornadoes would look like a good bet in the vicinity of the warm front in NE Oklahoma with the current GFS solution. Long ways out though, so a lot can change. It’s certainly something to keep a close eye on though. Storms may also be possible farther south along the dryline, but I’d think the favored location for storms would be along the dryline bulge. That in combination with the stronger low level shear along the warm front in NE Oklahoma is making me focus in on that area for tornado potential.

Saturday storms should be a little more widespread as a stronger mid level jet streak works into Oklahoma. Long ways out, but deep layer shear would likely be stronger and the warm sector should be just as juiced as it will be on Friday. That sends the signal that Saturday may be the more widespread severe weather day. I like the southern into central Oklahoma area best on Saturday right now, but again a long ways out so a lot can change. . The orientation of the dryline is a bit NE to SW and I hate veering 850’s which we may be dealing with, so there’s a couple concerns for you. That being said, parameters do look favorable for tornadic supercells again on Saturday. That’s about all I’ll say for now given how far out it is.

Alright, that’s it for tonight. I have plenty more to say so I could be my normal long winded self right now, but I need to get to relax for a little bit before bed. I do plan on chasing both Friday and Saturday and I’ll be updating on here regularly so check back if you’re interested.

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