Forecast Update

Long day again today so I am just now getting started looking at model data. Another busy day today. I didn’t get home from work until after 6pm, then I had to walk Duck, workout and clean my apartment. I’m getting my oil changed tomorrow right after work to get it ready for a chasing road trip this weekend. After that I have to hustle home and change to go to a concert with friends. That being said, I haven’t had much time to forecast today and I won’t have much time tomorrow night either. There really isn’t a whole lot more to add anyway, so look back to my previous map and post for ¬†reference. The previous forecast map is still valid minus a few tweaks I’ll cover below.

For Friday, it’s looking like cap’ola bust’ola. Neither the NAM or the GFS is painting a pretty picture. Chances look pretty good that the cap may hold. You really can’t trust the models with precip though, so I’m not canceling any plans just yet. As we get within a day of the event you can start to look at observational data and the models will provide a little better guidance. If the cap can break, the best parameters will be off the dryline bulge. The NAM has had the dryline bulge farther southwest than the GFS and the GFS seems to be trending that way. Therefore on my map below the threat area needs to be shifted a little farther to the southwest. Right now it looks like the dryline bulge and stronger shear will be near Oklahoma City. That is the area that would have the best potential for a tornadic supercell. It’s both a favored area for the cap to possibly break and it has the better low level shear where surface winds back. The big problem with Friday is the cap and right now it doesn’t look real good. If we can get a sustained storm on Friday, conditions should be pretty favorable for tornadic supercells. As I mentioned earlier, as we get closer it will be a lot easier to figure out the cap and whether or not we’ll get any storms. I hope the picture is more clear because I really don’t want to drive down to Oklahoma for a blue sky bust on Friday night. If it looks like we’ll get storms, I’m chasing.

Saturday looks like a much more sure thing as far as getting storms go. The problem with Friday is poor directional shear with very little 850-500 crossover by 00Z ahead of the dryline in Oklahoma. The best directional shear and greatest tornado threat will most likely be over the southern half of Oklahoma. Right now it looks like the southeast quadrant of Oklahoma, east of 35 and south of I40 is the most likely to get a tornadic supercell or two. As long as the directional shear doesn’t get worse with later runs, I think hodographs still look decent and a right moving storm should be able to produce over that area. The north central Texas area just south of there also looks okay along the dryline. So basically if you look back to my previous map, I think the southern half of the threat area I outlined looks best for tornadoes.

Alright, I know that’s pretty brief and uninformative, but I’m tired and winging it tonight so you’re just going to have to take it lol. I’ll try to get a brief update posted tomorrow, but no guarantees. Until next time…

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