Forecast Update

061117 Forecast Map Project

Well it looks like there will be a solid tornado threat tomorrow over the southeast quadrant of Wyoming. I’ve been watching it for a couple days, but there is no way I can chase. I have a consultant coming in tomorrow morning at work and the meeting has been scheduled for three weeks. It’s for our ISO recertification which is a week from Monday. I’m responsible for our ISO certification so I really can’t be gone the day of our final review before the recertification audit. It sucks because I would have loved to drive up to Cheyenne, Wyoming today and spent tonight going out up there. It would have been a relaxing road trip. No dice for Mikey though. I am probably chasing Nebraska on Tuesday though. I don’t have anything at work I can’t get out of so I think I’ll head out around 10-11am Tuesday morning for central Nebraska.

As far as the forecast goes, tomorrow I’d setup near Chugwater (which isn’t hard to figure out if you’re friends with chasers on Facebook because everybody and their brother is there right now). The high resolution NAM has consistently shown several storms developing from central to SE Wyoming during the afternoon. Storms may come off a bit cluttered at first, but one or two dominant storms should take shape over the southeast quadrant of Wyoming during the afternoon. As low level shear improves during the evening, hodographs will become very supportive of tornadic supercells. A strong tornado threat will exist from 6-9pm with any discrete storm over the area I boxed in red on the map. I’d expect SPC to probably go with a 10% hatched probability for tornadoes in the Day 1 outlook.

Tuesday’s setup is a tad bit more uncertain with regards to tornado potential. Storm motions are a bit to parallel to the dryline with less turning in the 850-500mb layer than I’d like to see. How far south storms develop is a bit uncertain, with some model guidance indicating convection all along the dryline in Kansas too. The problem as you head south is LCL heights will be higher so that will inhibit tornado potential. I haven’t looked at it that close yet, but I’ll start sorting out the details tomorrow and get my exact target for Tuesday posted. If there are discrete storms from central to Northeast Nebraska Tuesday afternoon, then I think there will be a decent tornado threat. I’ll get more into that later.

If you’re out tomorrow chasing, good luck. Wish I could be there. The road networks look like they suck over a lot of the threat area, so that will likely be the biggest challenge. There could be some photogenic tornadoes though so it should be a solid chase day.

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2 Responses to Forecast Update

  1. Mike M says:

    Great job with forecast yesterday! Discussion was pretty spot on.

    • Administrator says:

      lol I didn’t say much so I seriously doubt it was any help and I whiffed a little on my threat box. I should have had it a tad farther south. The thing that made me error North a little itch it was low level shear was supposed to be better farther north. By yesterday early afternoon though it started to become a little more clear the tail end may be the best play. About the only piece of good advice I posted was with regards to storms coming off cluttered initially before a few dominant cells take over.

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