Forecast Update

I’m still sulking a bit from not being able to chase Monday. Truth be told, I’m not 100% sure I would have gotten on the right storm. I was liking the Chugwater target and CAM guidance was consistent in showing a storm coming off that central portion of the moderate risk with a good gap to its south. That option was pretty appealing to me when I was watching the models leading up to the event. Once storms started firing though and going off current observations, I did start to think playing any tail end closer to the far southeastern corner of Wyoming looked like a better play. Who knows what I would have done if I was there. I do know one thing though. The only thing worse than not being able to chase on a big day is chasing a big day and fucking it up lol. That hurts the worst.

I thought we may be pretty much done with any good tornado setups, but I think there is still time. I can remember plenty of good tornado days during the last half of June. In fact I may be chasing as soon as Friday. The GFS has been showing some decent parameters in northeast and east central Nebraska Friday evening as a low amplitude disturbance works through the largely zonal flow over the plains. Tonight’s run of the NAM is even more aggressive and is showing some impressive parameters with a tail end of storms tracking through east central Nebraska. I’m just now getting into the forecast for this setup, but it certainly bears watching. I’m interested to see what SPC does when they pick it up with the day 3 tomorrow. Given it’s a low amplitude disturbance and there are some things that could go wrong, I doubt they get too aggressive this far out. One big concern that could totally flop any real tornado potential would be storms Thursday night in the central plains wiping out the moisture and delaying return flow into Nebraska. It will be interesting to see what SPC has to say tomorrow morning. I’ll be keeping an eye on the models so as long as it is looking good I’ll keep updating. The 03Z hodographs where convection is tracking through Friday night with the NAM is impressive, so maybe I’ll get a shot at redemption on Friday.

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2 Responses to Forecast Update

  1. Mike M says:

    I’m guessing no news is not good news for tomorrow’s chasing potential?!? Sure doesn’t look as good for discrete cells and tornado potential as seemingly models supporting quick upscale growth. Curious on your thoughts and if you’re still planning to head out. Thanks much

  2. Administrator says:

    You are correct. I don’t think it looks as good as it did a few days ago. I only glanced at the HRRR, but I’d still chase, maybe targeting York to Columbus area to start if it looks like a more discrete storm is likely there. I’m buried at work getting ready for an audit though so I’m screwed. If it wasn’t for that I’d be watching models more closely and probably head out though, mostly because this season had been so slow. I’m more interested in next weekend when I should be able to chase and the GFS is hiring at some potential in South Dakota

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