Update on Today’s Tornado Threat

Just a quick update from the road. We are heading down I70 and should make Hays within an hour. My thoughts are about the same as last night. There is a strong tornado threat, especially near the triple point and dryline storms developing in the area I boxed in green on the above map. Convective evolution and getting a discrete storm with unimpeded inflow is still my chief concern with the extent of the tornado threat this afternoon. The HRRR picked up where the NAM left off and shows somewhat clustered storms as they move off the boundary before one or two becomes more dominant with a clear southern flank. I think the best play is to get along I70 near or just east of Hays and then move in on one of the cells that you think should be more dominant as the picture becomes more clear with cumulus fields on satellite or radar as storms first develop. It’s still kind of hard to pin down the exact location of the boundaries, but you can start to see hints of the front with the latest visible satellite images and the dryline should become more well defined over the next couple hours. I’ll try to get a satellite pic posted showing the exact boundary locations in the next hour or two. For now, not much more to add as my thoughts haven’t changed since my previous posts. The map above is a quick road sketch of where I expect the strongest storms to develop and where the peak tornado threat should be later today. I’d expect a tornado watch sometime in the next few hours. Be careful if you’re out and watch KWCH for coverage. I will try to post again with a final target and mesoscale updates as warranted, so check back if you’re interested.

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