Update

Just glanced at data and no changes to the going forecast (see previous post and map). I think the NAM had a good handle on moisture with last night’s run and we are staring down the barrel of upper 50 dewpoints in SW Kansas this afternoon. That ain’t good. We may eek out a few low 60’s, but it’s just not going to be enough to get it done I’m afraid. There is a small chance we’ll get a weak tornado or two, but I’m not banking on it. I don’t believe in this setup and I don’t want to chase, but I’m going to lol. I absolutely hate missing out on tornadoes, especially when they’re in Kansas and the KWCH viewing area. That’s the sole reason I’m chasing today. If this were across the border in Oklahoma and outside of the KWCH viewing area, I’m getting drunk downtown tonight instead lol. It’s a sense of obligation and fear of missing out that’s getting me in the field today.

I glanced at tomorrow’s setup very briefly. I still feel good about it. My fear for tomorrow is that unfavorable convective evolution may create a brief window for tornadoes. I’m not sure how long storms will stay discrete. I think they’ll tornado fairly quickly with explosive development given the extremely volatile environment along the warm front, but if they fill in and it gets sloppy fast then that won’t leave a very long window for tornadoes. I think the density of the tornado cluster we see along that warm front is going to be largely proportional to how long those storms stay discrete. I’ll get into that more later today or tomorrow morning.

That’s it for now. I’m heading out around lunch time today. Probably heading towards the Syracuse area for starters. I may tweak that a bit, but I’ll be some place in that general area and plan on chasing east/NE from there. I’ll try to get an update posted either right before I leave town or when I’m on the road.

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