Today

We are going with the OFB target today. I am trying to get out the door so not much time now, but I think the overnight convection disrupted low level winds more than the NAM is showing. 850’s really haven’t recovered at all yet north of the OFB. I think there are two distinct corridors for tornadoes. One where spc just put the latest mess for the OFB and the other kind of along I70 and the turnpike from Junction City/Emporia up towards KC. That triangle area along with the OFB are the most likely places to see tornadoes today IMO. With the disrupted low level winds and that warm front being more of a crashing cold front, I’m afraid of that screwing up anything going closer to Concordia right by the low, which was my target a couple days ago. I think anything along 70 is a little riskier and I’m not sure how convective evolution will go up there and whether the cold front will interfere. The ofb may have convective evolution problems too, but the air is less contaminated and all we need is one or two discrete cells to get the job done, which very well may happen. I’m going to err east and setup near 135 with a good east bound option, probably at the highway that runs to Ark City. I think a lead storm or a dominant cell moving into south central KS could get it done. I’ll update more from the road.

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