Sorry I didn’t get a post up after I hit the road yesterday. I was flying solo and I never had much time or much to say while I was driving out to western Kansas and getting into position. I thought yesterday was shit for tornadoes, and it turned out that way lol. I played the warm front up along I70 since that was the only place I thought the thermodynamics and low level shear may be good enough for a tornado. I got a severe storm NW of Scott City. It right turned and actually started building down a wall cloud, but right about the time it was getting organized and cluster of storms that were on a more northern track ran right into it and ruined the show. The drive home on I70 was a nightmare. I think I had to core punch four different severe storms and it rained all the way from Oakley to Wichita. At points you couldn’t even see the road due to hail fog and blinding rain/hail. People were stopped all over I70. It took me about five and a half hours to make a drive that should have taken no more than 3 and a half. Sucked big time lol.
Today does not look nearly as good as it did in previous model runs. Overnight storms turning over the target area has made the surface pattern much messier and rather than have a tight surface low with a warm style front running east of it, you have more of a disorganized trough with a cold front dropping south. I am very short on time and I think picking a target will be a lot easier here in an hour or so, so for now I’m not going to say much. I need to shower and get ready because I have people coming over to chase. I think there is two targets. One would be about straight north of Wichita near I70. This is east of the surface low and hopefully surface winds will back through there. Storms developing in that area and tracking along the turnpike and that Topeka to KC corridor may be able to get a tornado out. The other interesting area is along the KS/OK border area where outflow from overnight storms should set up. I’m watching that on satellite now. Short range models show low level winds not being that strong up north, I’m sure due to the massive blob of crapvection wiping that area out. Low level shear may be stronger along the OFB down south in addition to preexisting voriticy being available along that boundary. I’m leaning south for my target, but I could go either way. I’m going to shower and get the car cleaned up real quick and then I’ll take a closer look and make the call. I am not driving today, so I should be able to forecast and make posts on the road. Check back here in an hour or two for another targeting and tornado potential update.