Well the outlook isn’t good my friends. I tell you it’s not good at all lol. Seriously though it does look like shit, but you can’t really trust the GFS that far out. I’ll get into that here in a second. First I was going to briefly address the shit show on Saturday. That initial cluster of storms in Oklahoma went up farther south than expected and I think they screwed things up for the tornado potential down there. We knew going into it that convective evolution was a concern and I don’t think it played out favorably. By the time one storm in that massive cluster became dominant it looked like an HP nightmare given the road networks and chase terrain. We were setup by the OK/KS border, so there was no chance for us to make that storm unless we fully committed and hauled south. We opted to stay put and ended up getting on a storm in Oklahoma later. It looked like it worked into some less buoyant air in the wake of that lead cluster. It shit the bed just like virtually every other storm during the afternoon and there were cells trying to develop everywhere. Basically it was a mess. Still it’s the only place that produced a tornado. I think there was one tornado report in Oklahoma up close to the KS border. It was pretty obvious there wasn’t going to be any tornadoes by around 5pm so we called it a day. Ended up just tagging along with a couple severe storms so pretty worthless chase.
Looking forward, there’s not much hope lol. The models were hinting at a couple troughs breaking down the ridge and getting into the central plains by around June 1st, but the GFS has trended away from that. Now it’s showing lower amplitude waves that stay farther north. That’s not what you want to see. I’m down to head up to the Dakotas, but I need.a decent setup for that level of commitment (at least if it’s during the week). If you take GFS literally, which you should not, then there really isn’t any real good looking tornado days. The 18Z provides one interesting day in like a week and a half, but you can’t pay any attention to something that shows up in just one model run. The broader picture is definitely a bleak one at this point. Still a lot of time left though and June is still prime time for tornadoes. I’ll keep watching the models and update every couple days.