Tornado Chances for Friday

Really don’t know why I’m making a post right now because I have been unable to do any real forecasting since the models updated. COD has been slow the last few days and tonight it is literally unusable. Bit of a problem for me since that is where I do virtually all of my forecasting. I am not a fan of pivotal weather and twister wx because there are no zoomed in views. It’s just killing me. I know there are some other sites that you can pull regional views from, but I’m not going digging right now for new forecasting sites just because COD’s server is shitting the bed. Last night it started working better a little later at night. I don’t know if the problem is when the data is being updated or if it’s simply heavy traffic around the time the updated runs are coming out. Something is wrong though.

Anyway, I am interested in Nebraska for Friday evening. I had been focusing on North and South Dakota, but that is a hell of a drive and more recent runs have gotten me a lot more interested in dryline storms over southern or central Nebraska. Higher quality moisture has been forecast to push into that area Friday afternoon and it may be enough to break the cap and get a few discrete/semi discrete storms coming off the dryline. Parameters really ramp up for tornadoes there after 00Z, but at the same time CINH starts to set in. I really need COD working to look into this since it’s a matter of pulling forecast soundings and looking at the finer details to see if the good tornado potential late in the day can be realized. Convective evolution should be at least mildly favorable for either discrete storms or a solid tail end storm late in the day during the window where low level shear ramps up, so the potential looks like it could be there fora. solid tornadic storm. The devil is in the details with tornadoes though and forecasting them is a finicky little deal with these types of setups. As far as Nebraska goes it looks like it’s going to be a tightly timed deal where things need to come together just right. In central Nebraska at 00Z the LCL heights will be a little high and 0-1km SRH will be marginal at best. The NAM has the upper 60 dewpoints advecting into that area late in the day and we really need that moisture to hit the tail end storms by that 7pm window where low level shear ramps up dramatically. If that can happen, LCL heights will lower and low level shear will ramp up dramatically around 7pm. There should be a discrete or tail end storm that will be capable of tornadoes in that area, so then it’s just a matter of whether or not those parameters come together early enough for storms to go tornadic before CINH starts to cause problems. I am really interested to see what SPC has to say and to look at the finer details with the Nebraska setup once COD gets its shit together and starts working properly. It’s not short drive for me. I could be looking at as much as a 6 and a half hour drive to my target area, but if it looks like there is a chance for some solid tornadoes I am going to have to pull the trigger. I pray to god storms can go up in the southern half of Nebraska because the Sandhills are kind of a pain in the ass. I’ve chased them several times before, but it’s definitely not one of my favorite areas. It’s desolate and the road networks suck bad. I feel like I deserve some decent roads after dealing with the area between Buffalo OK, Protection KS and Alva OK last night. That area is a shit show too with the Cimmaron river and horrible back road options. Bit of a kick in the nuts on that deal yesterday. We got on the storm that tracked right down the OFB. It certainly appeared to have the best tornado potential and the vast majority of chasers in the field yesterday were on that storm, but then a storm by Dodge City, not even in the watch area, plants a couple tubes. LOL fucking kidding me. I can’t even be mad at myself for not getting the right storm on that one. Our storm got close to producing a few times before the bird fart by Wanoka. It was kind of weird when it crossed back into Oklahoma. There was this big tail cloud like ghost train style updraft base, but the core of the updraft base was real raggedy like it was struggling a bit. At the same time the lowering was building down on the north edge of the meso and there was rapid vertical motion, obvious vorticity being ingested as the tail feeding in was corkscrewing big time, but the base of the lowering/tail cloud feeing into remained too horizontal. It was like the bouyancy in the downdraft/updraft interface right there wasn’t right to tilt the vorticity that was being ingest vertical enough for you to get a tornado. That or the RFD was undercutting it just a bit. One way or another it couldn’t quite get it done, but it was real close. You had that rapid downward motion on the RFD side of the wall cloud and rapid inflow with rotation on the inflow side. All the cloud motions looked right for that thing to plant a tube, but it just wasn’t quite vertical enough to do it. Hopefully I can rebound from it Friday in Nebraska.

I haven’t looked at Saturday’s setup yet since COD is shit and I’m focused on Friday, but I’ll take a look at it tomorrow. I’d like to chase Friday and then go out Saturday, but if the tornado chances look good I will probably chase right through the weekend.

I’ll try to update tomorrow. I’d wait for the NAM to start working right on COD and do it tonight, but I need to watch the office on Netflix and get to bed early, so it’s not happening. Check back tomorrow though for an update.

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