It’s my favorite time of year again. Whether you go off March 1st or 15th start date for tornado season, it’s here. I’ve been checking the models daily for a few weeks now, but there hasn’t been any action in the plains worth talking about yet. Right on schedule though, it looks like things will start picking up soon so it’s time to dust off the old blog. I also had to update my software for my blog and it’s a little different, so I need to get some test posts going to make sure I got everything under control. I need to reestablish my push settings to my other social media accounts and check a few other things. I hate dealing with this stuff, but it’s way better to get the kinks worked out now rather than screwing with it when I’m in the field on a chase.
I’m going to keep it pretty brief for now because we are a long ways out and the GFS has been jumping around a lot. Although there’s been very little consistency with the GFS, there has been consistency in the general signal that we are going to transition into a west coast trough next weekend with a series of shortwaves ejecting into the plains between March 23rd and March 26th. The specific timing of these waves are far from clear. What is becoming a little more clear is the general theme and two larger presumptions that I’ve taken away from it. One is that in the series of shortwaves that are forecast to eject into the plains during the March 23-26 window, the later waves have consistently been stronger. On top of that, the northern half of the gulf will be pretty dry leading into this weekend and you aren’t going to get a very good fetch of moisture for the initial shortwaves this weekend, so I expect the moisture quality will be much better for any shortwaves coming through Monday-Tuesday (talking about March 25th-26th when I say Monday-Tuesday btw in case you weren’t following). Basically I think the initial waves will prime the pump and we’ll get better quality moisture to work with Monday-Tuesday. So I guess my presumption is that we may see a low end severe risk somewhere in the plains this weekend, the better chance for any tornado threat will hold off until the March 25-26 timeframe. Beyond that there isn’t much point in going into detail until we see some consistency out of the models. I did get my car mostly prepped today so I’m about ready to chase. I will be ready by this weekend. If there is chase potential this weekend, I think it will be low end. I am more optimistic about seeing some tornado potential early next week, but it’s a long ways out and the GFS has not been consistent so it’s nothing more than something to keep an eye on at this point. Still with the GFS showing decently strong shortwaves and the larger scale pattern being somewhat favorable for at least adequate moisture advecting into the plains, it has my attention.
I will continue to keep an eye on it and try to post somewhat regularly so check back if you’re interested.