Extended Forecast

I had to jump over to pivotal weather tonight and check out the ECMWF because the GFS showed some major changes with the 500mb pattern from yesterday’s 12Z through today’s 18Z. It has been trending towards having the lead trough that comes through this weekend digging much farther south over the southeastern US which clobbers the gulf. The GFS also has a higher amplitude west coast trough coming through later for the second wave later in the week (was Tuesday on earlier runs, now it is showing Thursday). Due to the major swings with the GFS, decided I better start watching the Euro. I only looked at the last two runs of the euro and it seems to be closer in line with the later runs of the GFS. It’s pointless getting into any detail right now since the models can’t be trusted, but the lead wave not digging south into the gulf is going to be a major factor in the quality of setup we may get for the second trough later next week. The further south quality moisture gets shoved south, the harder it’s going to be for us to advect quality moisture back north into the plains ahead of the next trough. Lot of uncertainty obviously, but the good news is that the models do seem to consistently be showing an active jet stream over the plains in the coming weeks, so hopefully we’re looking at an active end of March/start of April.

Below is a screen grab of 500mb temps with the ECMWF and GFS from COD and Pivotal Wx just to give you an idea of the upper air pattern if you aren’t looking for yourself. They really aren’t all that far off from each. High amplitude trough coming on the west coast, I’ll take it. That’s all you can really ask for this time of year.

The GFS is a little faster and a little lower amplitude relative to the euro, but the theme is the same. An active jet stream with a west coast trough. So I guess we keep waiting and watching. I’m amped for chase season, so I’ll be watching the models closely. I’ll try to update frequently so check back if you’re interested. With the NCAA tournament starting Thursday I may get sidetracked a bit, but that will be temporary. In other news I have to update some stuff on my blog so there is the distinct possibility that I’ll crash it. If that happens, just give me a few days and one way or another I’ll get it straightened out.

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