Today

Been glancing over data and looks like we got a big turd sandwich on tap for today. Overnight convection has bit the warm sector pretty hard. Dewpoints in the mid 50’s are still way down south in Texas. I can’t even see them on the central plains view on SPC mesoanalysis. Earlier runs of the NAM had dewpoints reaching 57 or so along the dryline in south central Kansas. That ain’t gonna happen. BTW if I had spent a little more time/done a better job forecasting, overnight/morning storms inhibiting moisture return probably should have been flagged as a problem. I didn’t look very closely at the setup since it’s just a lower end severe threat, but still I should have caught that. That’s why you start trying the forecasting early in the season though just like you try out the equipment. You gotta knock the dust off from last season before the real deal gets here. The 14Z run of the HRRR is fairly aggressive with dewpoints getting back up to 60 near OKC. Not sure I’m buying that, but I do think the area near OKC is the only possibility for a play today. I’m anxious to see what SPC does with the 11:30 update and whether or not they go with a slight risk or keep it mrgnl. I haven’t looked at it closely so I don’t have much of an opinion and I’m trying to get my apartment cleaned up so I can run to the gym in an hour so I’m not going to forecast much, but my guess is the HRRR is juicing it a bit. We got KU playing the late game tonight in the NCAA tournament and my focus is going to be on going to the bar to watch that rather than chasing a real low end setup. I did work on getting my dashcams setup this morning, so I did make some progress on the chasing front. Just a few more things to do and I’m ready whenever mother nature decides to cooperate and give us a good tornado setup. On that front, Thursday of next week is still looking like our first real chance. Long ways out and I have little to no faith in the GFS so take that with a grain of salt, but I’m watching it closely. If it looks as good as it has in the most recent runs, then I will be chasing on Thursday. I’ll probably get a forecast post on that up tomorrow, so check back then if you’re interested.

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