3/29 Forecast Update

It doesn’t look good. That pretty much sums it up. The trend south has continued. The NAM has the triple point down in Texas now and that’s about the only place you get decent instability. Still there is quite a bit of convective inhibition and the models continue to be scarce with any precipitation. Farther northeast along the frontal boundary into Oklahoma there is very little instability. The shortwave seems to be slower as well and the jet axis is well northwest of the triple point, so although adequate, deep layer shear isn’t impressive for this time of year. The only place with a chance for a low end tornado is going to be at the triple point on Friday (wherever that ends up) and even there I don’t think it’s looking very good. I’ll keep an eye on it and update occasionally.

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