Forecast Update

I’m winging it right now, so don’t take this too seriously. I need to go to the gym so I was just quickly glancing over data before I do. I’ll do my real forecasting later tonight. After glancing at the NAM and NAM NEST on COD, they both seem to show a warm sector triple point storm, which is a change from the last couple runs. I remember some earlier runs have shown that, but I think that’s the first time I’ve seen it with both those models since the higher resolution NAM picked up on it (not sure what exactly is different with the NAM NEST other than being higher resolution and slightly different equations I imagine, don’t really care that much either lol). Anyway, I think that’s a positive sign. I also noticed that the uncapped swath along the dryline/triple point/warm front was a little beefier with this latest 18Z run. That’s encouraging since in previous runs inhibition seemed like a serious problem even if you could get a surface based storm off the boundary. If you take the models really seriously, they show dryline storms trying to develop and fizzling out. I wouldn’t buy into that concept because of seeing that, but coming sense would tell you the storm coming right off the triple point is the one that is most likely to track right along/just south of the warm front where moisture pooling and backed low level winds will create a more favorable environment for sustained surface based storms than the ambient warm sector, so I’m focused like a laser beam on the triple point. Tomorrow would be a good day to have a meson in Kansas. It’s horse shit that we are in the heart of tornado alley and have a shit network of surface stations though, so identifying the exact location of the triple point that way isn’t possible, but you can watch visible satellite as cumulus fields form and pin it down that way if you know what you’re looking at. Storm motions will be fast tomorrow, so my preliminary plan is targeting just south of the front east of the triple point by 20 miles or so. I’ll get into that with my forecast post later tonight though.

One other thing I noticed with the quick look I just took was that moisture along the Texas coast still sucks big time. When I was looping surface charts with the NAM last night I was trying to get a feel for when the moisture we would see over the target area was forecast to move on shore according to the NAM, so that I can transition away from model data to observational data for my forecasting as we get inside of 36 hours. My best guess was that moisture moving on shore along the Texas coast around 00Z tonight was representative of what the NAM was showing over the warm sector in Kansas tomorrow evening. Assuming that’s the case (and again I’m winging it now and will take a closer look later), dewpoints are currently in the 50’s with 60’s just off shore. Low level winds are still blowing off shore as we speak, but they are forecast to begin turning around across south Texas literally within hours as the low level jet ramps up ahead of the approaching trough. Hopefully we can get a better look at moisture profiles moving on shore with the 00Z Corpus Christi and Brownsville soundings later tonight.

Anyway, that’s it for this quick update. Still some major question marks, but as things stand now I’m planning on chasing. It’s too close for me to sit it out. My concerns are still the same from previous forecast posts, but if we can eek out a triple point storm and moisture is as good or a little better than forecast, then despite the weak moisture and CINH I still think we could possibly get a lower end tornado or two given the strong deep layer shear and fairly strong low level shear. I’ll get into more details and my target later tonight when I update the forecast.

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