Forecast Update

I really haven’t had time to look at much. I’ve been scrambling at work this morning trying to get things lined out so I can leave at noon. I did glance at moisture quickly and my guess is the NAM is overdoing it by 3-4 degrees and the HRRR is underdoing it by a few degrees on dewpoints. I think we’re going to see 57 degree dewpoints or so tucked into the triple point this afternoon. We’ll see. That obviously plays into capping and our chance of a surface based storm, so I think the chances for a surface based triple point storm and a tornado are pretty low. Still I’m going to give it a go. I need to try out equipment and I need a break from work. There’s quite a bit of difference with the exact location of the triple point too across the models. The NAM seemed to nudge it back southwest a bit, while the HRRR is farther NE. I’ll figure that out when I’m on the road, but I may revise my target slightly one way or another. FYI below is the NAM forecast for dewpoints at 15Z and the OK mesonet at the same time. Just looking south on the mesonet I don’t see you getting above 58 into Kansas. You may get a little contribution from pooling along the front and evapotranspiration, but I don’t see the 60 plus the NAM has been showing verifying. ┬áNo time now so I’ll update from the road.

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