The NAM is definitely overdoing dewpoints by 4 degrees or so. We have 56 working into Kansas with the highest readings on the OK mesonet showing a pool of 56-57 degree dewpoints and I think that’s what we are going to have to work with today. I think that’s likely a deal breaker for any outside chance at a tornado. To make matters worse, the HRRR has moisture drying/mixing out as it gets wrapped into the surface low with zero pooling of moisture along the front. It has dewpoints in the low 50’s at best tucked in along the front. That would be a for sure deal breaker for any outside tornado chance. As much as I really want to chase and not go back to work this afternoon, it would be stupid of me to burn time off when there’s no chance for tornadoes. It’s especially hard since the GFS is showing more of the same BS over the next two weeks, with troughs digging south over the east coast wiping the gulf clean of moisture. Same thing we are dealing with today. It doesn’t do you any good to have good troughs and shear profiles that would support tornadic storms coming through the plains if you don’t have the moisture to work with. It seems like every trough the GFS shows digs way south after it crosses the plains and just hammers the gulf. That’s depressing. There’s a chance maybe next Monday-Tuesday and then again the following weekend, but with the gulf getting hit ahead of each trough I don’t see any way for us to get high quality moisture into the plains. This better not be another slow tornado year after we’ve had two incredibly slow years in a row now, but I can tell you right now that it looks like April is going to be a huge dud for the plains. Better turn around quick in May or it’s going to be another shit season.
I’m going to keep an eye on the setup for today, but I think I’m passing. I’ll hold my time off for better chances in May. I just see no point with dewpoints as low as they are going to be. I’m not a hail chaser. I need tornadoes to get me out there.