Forecast Update

Sorry for the silence over the last couple days if you’re one of the 31 visitors I’ve had this morning. I haven’t started linking my blog posts yet to my social media accounts, so up to this point in the season my blog has been on the DL. I figured I better get the dust blown off my forecasting before I start promoting it lol. Usually when I don’t link my blog posts to my social media accounts nobody except past year’s followers who added me to their favorites list come looking so my views are pretty low. It’s started to pick up the last two days since I’ve been quiet and not making any posts though so I feel a little bad. I’ve been watching the models. I just had my hands full with doing my taxes and Game of Thrones coming back on so I didn’t have the time to type up a forecast. Wednesday has SPC’s attention though so figured I better get after it. I’m just on my lunch break right now so I only have a few minutes to burn. I’ll get into it further later tonight.

Lot of discrepancy on exactly where the triple point and dry line bulge will setup. The NAM is quite a bit further west than the GFS and SPC’s hatched portion of the threat area. SPC did drag the risk area further west though, which I think is them basically hedging their bets until the models zero in on the location a little better. The biggest issue I see so far is the weak low level shear. Like it sucks balls anywhere near initiating boundaries until after 00Z when it starts to ramp up ahead of the dryline. It’s kind of a goofy surface pattern with a surface trough trying to somewhat back surface winds along the cold front in N central Oklahoma, but even if low level shear is sufficient for tornadoes along the cold front, I think storm motions paralleling the boundary up there is going to make things fill in real quick so that convective evolution is going to mitigate any tornado threat if there otherwise could have been one. I pray to god the NAM is off and the triple point isn’t as far west as what’s it’s showing. That would kind of be a deal breaker for me. I don’t mind taking off a half day to chase a lower end setup like this, but if I want to target the northern portion of the dryline I’d be looking at a Childress, TX area target as things stand now and that’s a rough five and a half hour drive for me. I hate dealing with the Red River too. It’s always a pain in the ass chasing through that area and I’ve been burned by road networks there more times than I can count.

Anyway, the potential is there. One change we need to see if you’re taking the models literally is we need to get storms firing a little earlier so they can have time to track out into the better moisture/higher CAPE environment well off the dryline. That and the low level jet will be stronger out over the warm sector helping to improve the otherwise shitty low level shear. You can have a variety of parameters that support tornadic storms; low CAPE, high CAPE, strong deep layer shear, weaker deep layer shear, varying LCL/LFC heights, etc., but the one thing all good tornado environments have in common is good low level shear. Generally I think of 0-1km SRH threshold for any sort of a meaningful tornado threat as being 100. We don’t see that right now with the models until after 7pm and storms would have to move off the dryline a ways into the open warm sector to realize that better low level shear.

I’ll take a closer look tonight and update then. The thing to focus on with this one though is low level shear. Gotta get a little better for a decent tornado threat IMO.

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