Extended Forecast

Sorry for the hiatus if you’ve been checking in. Spent Thursday-Saturday afternoon turkey hunting. I was super tired after I got home so I crashed Saturday afternoon. Went out for some drinks Saturday night, wrestled with a mild hangover Sunday morning, Easter stuff Sunday during the day, then Game of Thrones Sunday night. It’s been a busy few days so there wasn’t much time for forecasting and posting to the blog. I’ve been glancing at the models a bit, but I haven’t paid real close attention yet so I won’t get into much detail for a day or two. That being said, there seems to be at least some potential for tornadoes on the horizon. The models haven’t been consistent yet so confidence is low, but I’m going to say Tuesday of next week is going to be our next chase day. Across the various models, there is somewhat good agreement for 8 days out with SW flow returning to the plains. At this point the general scenario seems to be a closed low moving into the southwestern US this coming weekend will begin to phase back into the jet stream as it ejects into the plains with a negative tilt around Tuesday. The GFS had been faster in some earlier runs I glanced at with Monday looking like the potential day, but it’s since slowed down, which is typical. Right now the GFS has the trough in the plains Tuesday, which seems to sync up pretty well with the ECMWF and the GEFS. There was a fair bit of spread across the GEFS ensemble members, but the general consensus was some degree of SW flow if not the closed low ejecting into the plains. So even though we are 8 days out, which is a hell of a long ways, there seems to be decent consensus with the general pattern becoming favorable for severe weather in the plains early next week/Tuesday. The devil is in the details with tornadoes though and it’s a waste looking at details this far out. We can take a look at moisture return though. The trough that is stirring up some severe weather in Texas early this week will continue tracking east across the southern US and flush high quality moisture out of the gulf later this week. The GFS doesn’t show us getting good return flow off the gulf until early on Monday. I’m not a fan of 36 hours or less of advection ahead of a trough, so I’m a little worried about that. Currently the GFS has low 60 dewpoints making it back into Kansas by Tuesday afternoon, but it’s something to be skeptical of and keep an eye on. Beyond that, I’ll hold off until tomorrow before getting into it any further. Bottom line is there’s a glimmer of hope we’ll get tornado season started in Kansas soon. I for one am definitely ready. I’m keeping a close eye on the models now so check back for regular updates if you’re interested.

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