Forecast Update

I had a chance to glance over the 6Z and 12Z runs and things are starting to become a bit more clear. It is starting to look like there will be a more progressive pattern with three significant troughs coming through the plains starting this Friday. First chase day will be Friday. I am looking at a SW to south central Kansas target where you get the best overlap of the low and mid level jets. The extent of storm coverage is a question mark with very little precip with the models, but I do believe we’ll get some discrete storms off the dry line. Deep layer shear is certainly adequate for supercells, but it’s not very strong. That in conjunction with somewhat high LCL heights will likely be the biggest mitigating factor for tornado potential. I think it’s looking like a 10% tornado probability kind of day given the sparse nature of expected storm coverage. I think Saturday will be a severe weather day, but not much of a tornado day. Directional shear will be poor as the initial shortwave veers low level winds as it moves off to the northeast. The next and potentially most significant trough ejects into the plains on Monday with the GFS. For the last 24 hours the GFS has been strongly trending towards a major tornado outbreak type setup for Monday. I think this is the first setup for the plains that the models have shown looking like a high risk type setup this year. Still a long ways out and the models are far from steady, but Monday could be an extremely volatile setup across Kansas and Oklahoma. A final trough looks to eject into the plains later in the week around Thursday, when again we could be looking at a higher end type setup with a tornado outbreak possible. That’s way too far out to trust the timing or specifics, but it does seem plausible that we will have very good moisture and a very strong jet stream over the plains and that should throw up red flags regardless of how far out it is.

I’m going to take a closer look and I will get a map posted later tonight along with more information on the forecast.

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