Forecast Update

The hype train is rolling down hill and the brakes are out. SPC came out with their new 4-8 day outlook and highlighted a threat area for every single day, which is the first time they’ve done so in the history of the 4-8 day outlook. I thought it was a bold move and they’re braver than I am. Actually not really, because you have to be mindful of the fact that they are forecasting severe weather, which is a layup compared to forecasting tornadoes. They did specifically mention tornadoes with several of the setups and as far as what they said in that regard I agree. I have to make this update quick because I’m on my lunch break and I have a 2pm meeting I need to finish getting ready for, but I still think the bigger tornado days in the nearer term are Friday and Monday. Friday looks to be a moderate tornado threat. I still think 10% tornado prob if you go off SPC standards with several discrete tornado supercells coming off the dryline in western Kansas and eastern Texas panhandle/western Oklahoma on Friday afternoon. Only moderate shear profiles and LCL heights will keep that from being a higher end tornado threat, but I do think you could see a strong tornado or two. Monday looks much more serious and could be a major tornado outbreak across the central/southern plains. This one looks like a textbook major tornado outbreak right in the heart of tornado alley with an extremely potent combination of thermodynamics and shear over a large area. It’s still very unclear where the triple point will setup, but Oklahoma City and Wichita look to potentially be in the wheelhouse for that one. Beyond Monday, it’s still tough to pin anything down, but Wednesday and Thursday are also putting off signals for higher end tornadoes. Right now I know I’m chasing Friday, Monday and Wednesday/Thursday. I’m up in the air on Saturday. I think there will be a few tornadoes Saturday, but it looks to be sloppy and shear profiles aren’t that good. Tuesday is another possibility, but again I think there will be tornadoes but it will be a limited threat and I’m not doing the needle in the haystack thing with all these higher end setups showing up in the models. I’m hunting elephants with this stretch of active weather.

I will get a forecast and updated map posted later tonight, so check back then if you’re interested.

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