I didn’t have much time to forecast or make maps tonight. Got home late from the gym and I have a 7:30am meeting tomorrow so I need to get into work a little earlier than usual, so I didn’t much done on the forecasting front other than a quick glance. I’ll just do a quick run through and then I’ll get a couple posts up tomorrow.
Friday. I saw the 00Z NAM and of course it doesn’t want to break out precipitation in Kansas or Texas/Oklahoma. I think the NAM may be wrong on that one. After looking at it a little closer the NAM keeps a pocket of colder surface temps over the eastern Texas panhandle and then advects it north through the afternoon, which puts a stronger cap over the Kansas portion of the target area. This same surface temperature anomaly coincides with heavier cloud cover and saturated 850mb layer (can see it real easy on 850RH). The lower surface temps associated with this keep CAPE down CINH up and no precip along the dryline in that area with the 00Z NAM. At least that’s my quick take after spending about 15 minutes looking at the NAM and the GFS isn’t really showing the same thing (not going into it that deep tonight), so don’t take it too seriously lol. I’m going to see what SPC has to say about it tomorrow and I’ll dive into it more with tomorrow’s forecast. Being 3 days out I’m not too worried about the details yet. I am a little concerned about a cap bust though. Farther north in Nebraska near the triple point, I think the chances for a sustained storm are much higher up there. Low level shear will be pretty weak except for along the warm front where backing surface winds will improve SRH. Storms could pose a lower end tornado threat as they cross the warm front, but otherwise I think the tornado threat will be fairly low up there. Farther south the low level shear is forecast to be quite a bit stronger over the southern target area I outlined on the map. If we get storms, they should be discrete supercells with plenty of room to work. I’m just worried about CINH and getting a sustained storm. If sustained supercells develop, any storm over that area should pose a solid tornado threat and could put down a couple decent ones. Given the discrete/widespread nature of storm coverage, I’d probably just go 5% with the tornado probability if I were SPC. They seem to be more confident in sustained supercells in KS/TX/OK than I am with their forecast and they are way better than me at figuring that out so it will be real interesting to see what they say on that tomorrow. Below is my forecast map for Friday.
I am still highly skeptical of Saturday’s setup due to the same reasons mentioned in previous forecast. Directional shear is not good with very little 850-500 crossover and storms will likely go early and be fairly tightly packed in. Directional shear should get better out over the warm sector once storms get off the dryline a ways across Oklahoma and Kansas, however instability is also forecast to drop off as directional shear improves and there is a good chance storm mode (clustered) will become less favorable for tornadic storms as they get further out into the warm sector. I’m just not a fan. I think there will probably be some token tornadoes, but it’s not a good tornado setup. I may chase Saturday simply because it’s close to home and I’ll help with coverage in Kansas, but I’m not excited about it.
Sunday is a down day, which will be needed because tornado chances are on the rise starting Monday. The 00Z GFS is not nearly as good as earlier runs, but I won’t lose any sleep over it. It drops CAPE off a fair amount from earlier runs, which have all been showing a largely undisturbed warm sector with dewpoints in the low 70’s. The 00Z run has some precip and lower surface temps over the northern portion of the warm sector from central Oklahoma up into south central Kansas which puts a dent in instability. The hodographs are extremely impressive considering the moisture quality and potential instability that may coexist with it. If we can get an undisturbed warm sector with surface heating through the afternoon a tornado outbreak looks like a serious concern for Monday. I’m not going to worry about the latest downward trend with the GFS until we see some consistency. It looks like a very volatile setup and strong tornadoes would be a real possibility from central Oklahoma up to the warm front. Any storm coming off the triple point and tracking near the warm front could be particularly nasty and a bastard to chase given the fairly fast storm motions and probability for large hail. Should be a fun one lol. Below is my map. I’m sure it will change, but that’s my best guess 6 days out.
It is just past midnight and I need to ass out and get some sleep so that’s it for tonight simply because I’m out of time. There looks to be plenty of other chase opportunities through the week with lots of tornado potential. Tuesday could be big day as the trough pushes off to the east and another outbreak. Wednesday the threat will likely be back in the plains. Thursday and Friday there could be some higher end tornado potential in the central and northern plains. I’ll have to keep a close eye on it and try to get my plan figured out on the days I’m chasing. I’d love to hit the road all week and chase everything, but I don’t think I can pull that off with what I have going on at work. I think I can chase several days next work week, just not be gone all week like I’d like. Anyway, I’ll get into it more tomorrow. I’ll probably make an update in the morning or at lunch and then again tomorrow night.