Forecast Update

It’s all going to hell in a hand basket. lol I’m just beside myself with the GFS. It’s jumping around a lot and taking a dump on every setup as we get into the near term, which seems to be it’s MO. For chasers it is proving to be a dream crusher of a model. I am in a hurry so I need to keep this quick. Friday still looks to have serious capping problems for everywhere south of I70. I’ll look at it closely over the next 36 hours, but I’m thinking about calling an audible and going north where sustained storms are more likely. I’ll take a closer look at that tonight. I still think Saturday looks very messy and tornadoes will be tough to come by, but I do think they’ll happen. That is going to be a common theme through the entire forecast period. The GFS shows a very active jet stream with one wave after another coming through the plains for the foreseeable future, but there doesn’t seem to be any easy setups with an undisturbed warm sector. They all look sloppy where air mass recovery in isolated pockets may produce, but they aren’t widespread outbreaks where you basically pick your storm coming off the boundary and your in business. You are going to have to work for it. Monday of course follows that theme. The last several runs of the GFS have morning storms screwing things up across the northern portion of the warm sector. You may get some clearing behind that which will allow for a pocket of stronger CAPE, but how that will evolve is very unclear at the moment. Same theme seems to go through Tuesday and then again with the third trough that ejects into the plains on Thursday/Friday. We are going to get tornadoes in the plains between this Friday and next Friday. I have very little doubt about that. You can’t get this kind of high quality moisture with strong negatively tilted troughs coming through the plains and not get tornadoes. That would be very abnormal when it’s happening in May. It’s just going to be tough forecasting and chasing to find them. No layups with this one I’m afraid. That’s all the rambling I can do right now. I’ll dig into specifics tonight.

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