Sorry for not updating if you’ve been checking. I had my hands full today trying to get stuff done so I can focus on chasing. Took care of my stuff at work, cleaned up the car and got a new dash camera and new windshield wipers after work, got a hair cut, showered, setup my equipment in the car, reprogrammed all my dash cams (I keep three running in my car at all times, my streaming dash cam is recording, I have two go pros and then my primary sony video camera for a total of 7 cameras lol. I take the overkill approach after missing footage in the past) and finally I packed my bags and prepped the rest of my equipment by my door so I’m ready to bail first thing in the morning. Unfortunately that didn’t leave any time for forecasting until about 30 minutes ago. I’ve only glanced over the HRRR and NAM. I’m still very uncertain of where I’m targeting. Things would be so much simpler if I knew the dryline in Kansas was going to put off a sustained storm. The SW Kansas portion of the dryline has been my focus and target with this one for days, but as we get closer and there’s only been modest trends with the models towards breaking out storms in SW Kansas I’m having a hard time not just heading north and taking the sure thing in Nebraska. If I didn’t chase for KWCH it would be an easier call. I hate missing out on good tornadic storms in the viewing area and I feel bad if I don’t help out with coverage. The HRRR puts off a storm by Dodge City, but it dies off once it gets out over the warm sector with there is a stronger cap and less CAPE. The warm front lifts north really fast with the HRRR and keeps warm front storms in a favorable environment for a good period of time and that is where the HRRR puts off the strongest UH tracks. Not sure I’m buying that as advertised, I am not a fan of chasing warm front storms and it’s way the hell up north, so I’m not seriously considering that target. I might consider it, but I also have a guy coming from Arizona tonight that is going to follow along with me chasing for a week or so. He’s driving through the night tonight to get to Dodge City, which was the target I told him several days ago. I gave him the warning that we might be calling an audible and going to Nebraska today, which is going to suck something fierce for him because he’ll basically have to pull an all nighter to get there. Gotta go where the tornadoes are though.
Jesus I’m rambling a lot about non-forecasting related stuff. Anyway, the NAM keeps Kansas dry again with no dryline storms while the HRRR shows a storms that fizzles shortly after maturing. There are some differences in the surface patter near the surface low between the two models as well. The NAM shows a potent little notch with a tight moisture gradient just east of the surface low. The HRRR shows a wider moisture gradient in the same spot and not as potent of an environment. Both models have sustained supercells coming off the dryline in far NW Kansas/SW Nebraska though. As nonsensical as it seems after focusing no the triple point/near warm front environment and the SW Kansas dryline target for several days, I’m now considering targeting the far northern portion of the dryline. Storm motions are going to be fast tomorrow so I want to target downstream a ways. There’s no reason to get cute and tuck in tight on the boundary on fast storm motion days IMO. You are just asking to get left behind before the storm even matures and starts posing a solid tornado threat. I’m thinking maybe McCook, Nebraska or somewhere up in that area for starters. I’m either going there or out in the Dodge City area tomorrow. My plan is to check the cloud cover over the panhandle and CAM guidance first thing tomorrow morning and make my targeting call then. If I still can’t decide, I’ll head towards Hays and that will buy me three more hours to make the call. I can go NW from Hays or cut south to Dodge City from there if it looks like we’ll get dryline storms in SW Kansas. I don’t think I’ll play the warm front. Just too far and again I generally am not a fan of warm front storms. They tend to go HP as they mature so you have to tuck in tight in the bears cage and on days like tomorrow they can also have huge hail. It’s a recipe for an ass kicking and when storm motions are fast I really hate trying to manage warm front storms. Top that off with the shitty road networks in that part of Nebraska tomorrow and either you need an armored car or you better be okay with beating the shit out of your car. I’m not lol. So SW Nebraska or SW Kansas for Mikey. I’ll update in the morning when I look at data and I’ll be updating regularly through the day with mesoscale details so check back then.