Today

On my way to the McCook, Nebraska area. I’ll check satellite and surface pattern there and make final adjustments to my target from there. Plan is to get east of the surface low and I’ll either take a storm tracking near the warm front or take a northern dryline storm tracking through southern Nebraska. Tornado chances are better with the warm front option, but I also think that would take me north and northeast of North Platte which has some of the worst road networks in the plains. With fast storm motions I think chasing that area may be a fools errand. I’m considering it, but a northern dryline storm may be a better option low level shear away from the warm front won’t get strong enough for a decent tornado threat until 6-9 timeframe, but models have been signaling a long lived tail end or discrete supercell tracking through the McCook to central Nebraska corridor through the evening during that window when the LLJ ramps up. The tornado threat wouldn’t be quite as good as the near warm front environment, but it’s better road networks and easier to hang with a storm with that target. I’d love to play the dodge city area but cloud cover is filling in over the TX panhandle and into SW Kansas as forecast by the NAM and discussed in my previous posts. I think that lends credibility to the idea that there will be a narrow uncapped instability axis ahead of the dryline in SW Kansas so storms that due fire won’t have long enough windows to really mature and pose a good tornado threat before they move into less buoyant air and fizzle out.

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