Above is a quick little map I made on a sat pic from COD. The HRRR has been consistent in breaking out storms about where you can see the first hints of cumulus towers showing up on the map above where I circled in green. Additionally storms that fired earlier are trying to build northeast through the central Texas panhandle. You have that stretch of convection free unstable air north of the cloud cover in Texas that I circled in yellow. My question is whether the storms trying to build towards the northeast will fill in quick enough to clutter in/botch the environment for any storms developing over the western Oklahoma panhandle over the next couple hours. I’m sitting in Liberal right now kind of hedging my bests until I see how storms are going to come off. Over the northern half of the enhanced risk, low level winds are still veered and ain’t nothing happening with tornadoes until that changes anyhow so I am in no hurry. Surface winds have started to back over the last 30 minutes and modesl show that by 3-4pm low level winds will be backed and the LLJ will start ramping up into the evening. This is when the tornado threat should go up, so I’m trying to plan for that window and figure out where a more dominant storm will be tracking through with some open air to it’s southeast. This will either be a SW Kansas storm if storms farther south don’t fill in too quick or it could be a lead storm coming out of the northeast Texas panhandle. I’m in between, erring north slightly by sitting in Liberal. I got good road networks out of here so I’m going to sit tight until I think I have a handle on how things will unfold.
The other target I liked for this afternoon was playing a tail end more dominant storm through the SE quadrant of the Texas panhandle. That may end up being the storm headed towards Plainview or you may get another storm going up ahead of or just south of that storm. I’m playing north today though strictly to help with coverage and knock tonights/tomorrows drive down by 4-5 hours.