Today

Sorry for not posting more in the way of forecasts recently. I am dead tired from chasing virtually nonstop for the last 10 days or so. It’s been tough chasing and today looks to be no different with fast storm motions and a sloppy setup once again. This type of stuff makes a traditional dry line with discrete storms seem like a layup. I did a horrible job throwing the above map together. It was getting too cluttered so I couldn’t include all the info I wanted to. Storms should develop over the next couple hours in the two areas I outlined in yellow, which pertains mostly to the Wichita people. The storms forming south of us over the open warm sector will track north before they get severe. The dryline storms, which should form to our west near the other area I outlined in yellow is what Wichita needs to worry about this afternoon. Large hail and a lower end tornado threat is what I think we’re looking at. I just don’t think there is enough turning in the 850-500 layer for a solid tornado threat, despite CAPE being through the roof. Farther east over the warm sector and up towards the Topeka to Kansas City area there is better turning in that layer and the tornado threat should be higher as a result. Cloud cover has kept instability down, but clearing is working it’s way north and if that area can get a little sun before storms fire over the warm sector and start tracking through there again the tornado threat could be pretty solid. The warm front is draped roughly along I70 and the tornado threat should be maximized along and either side of that, especially in that Topeka to KC corridor. Any storm tracking through that area with undisturbed inflow to it’s south (no storms off it’s south side geeking with it) should pose the greatest tornado threat. SPC is giving no low to the Salina area, but it’s been clearing from McPherson to Concordia with the surface low rotating just west of there. I think this area could be a sleeper for a good tornado storm. You could also see an E-W outflow boundary from earlier storms that quickly mixed north and should be along I70 about now. That’s one more thing that may enhance a storm up there. Storms should develop east of the low along the dryline and track through that area, despite CAM guidance not really wanting to show that. I’m torn between heading north for what I think is a better tornado threat and staying down here to cover Wichita in case we get raked by a dryline storm. Can’t decide. Chasing for KWCH has cost me a lot of tornadoes because I don’t like risking missing out on covering Wichita on days when it’s under the gun. If it weren’t for that, I’d be heading towards Emporia or Topeka right now. I’m looking at data and will make the call soon. Good luck if you’re out. My guess is you’ll see several tornadoes up there along and north of I70 and staying just SE of that area and picking off dominant storms with undisturbed inflow as they track through the Topeka/KC/Emporia triangle is probably your best bet for a tornado today. I will probably cover Wichita and then possibly try to ride that storm northeast along the turnpike for as long as I can. Still up in the air on that though.

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