Tornado Forecast

Just threw a quick map together so I could convey the area of interest for Friday. The plains look like they might be picking up a bit the second half of June. Nothing major showing up consistently in the models, but there’s so lower end setups this weekend and then we may get some stronger mid/upper level winds the following week. For now I’m focused on Friday’s setup. It looks like a lower end setup, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a couple tornadoes. LCL height may be high initially, but it looks like there may be a window around dark with the low level shear picks up and LCL heights lower enough for a discrete storm or two to produce. The area I outlined in red is where I think the best chance of that happening is. Still some differences among the models. Latest NAMnest is farther east than the NAM. It has any storms into the better moisture/higher CAPE tongue earlier after coming off the boundary. The NAM shows some capping issues. Not sure what to think there since I’m just starting to pay close attention. Strong CAPE over the open warm sector, but deep layer shear is weak. It’s weak to the point that it’s a bit of a concern. The short of it is we may get a couple supercells in the SW Kansas area and with the low developing farther south and backing surface winds across the area, we may be able to get a couple tornadoes. I’m definitely leaning towards going. I wouldn’t mind a Friday afternoon chase and I’m itching to get back out again. I’ll take a closer look tomorrow and get into it more then.

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