Sorry I didn’t post last night. My feelings hadn’t changed from the previous two forecasts so I wasn’t too worried about it. I was kind of busy after work yesterday and by the time I got done forecasting it was late so I just wasn’t going to take the time to put a post together. Today my feelings remain the same. The NAM did end up trending farther north and the triple point is going to be well into Kansas. Problem is convective inhibition up here will likely keep any storms from developing. I’ve never been interested in the Texas panhandle option. They may eek out a weak tornado, but shear is not good enough down there for a legit tornado threat and storms will fill in quickly. Shear has been the issue all along here and I think a big part of tornado forecasting is recognizing what the weakness is with any given setup and then identify the area where that weakness will be mitigated most. With this setup the weak shear is mitigated most up near the triple point. Doesn’t do you any good if you don’t have a storm though. I got my equipment setup just now at lunch and am heading back to work. I’ll keep a close eye on CAM’s and satellite. If it looks like we may get a storm in SW Kansas I will hit the road. I may drive west an hour or so around 4pm just to be safe and make sure I keep the target area in range. We laid off/furloughed a lot of people at work so I’m really doing the job of three people right now, which is almost a full days work for me lol, so I need to be there as much as possible. I have a ton of vacation to burn, but I have no problem saving it for better chase days and hurricane season so I’m not going to use it today if I think its a cap bust in Kansas and the Texas panhandle is not worth the drive IMO.
Tomorrow brings more low end tornado chances. I’ve only glanced at the setup so I won’t comment now, but I’ll get into the forecast later tonight.