Forecast Update

Above is a quick map I threw together for Thursday’s setup. Best you’re getting on my MacBook. I need to get my lazy ass in gear and start banging maps out in photoshop. For now this will have to do though. Thoughts are still the same as yesterday for the most part. I’m not a big fan of tomorrow’s setup in eastern Wyoming. I don’t think it’s a good tornado setup worthy of the drive. I’m better off holding the vacation day for something better. If I was going to chase I would target east central Wyoming. That is about the worst road network for chasing you’ll ever come across though. The sandhills of Nebraska can be tough, I’ve chased through Indian reservations in the Dakotas that were very spars with roads, but that eastern Wyoming stretch may take the cake for worst road network. You never know in May so I’ll keep a close eye on it tomorrow afternoon, but I’m staying home for that one. I am most likely chasing Thursday though. Forecast still seems about the same. I took a little closer look at it tonight. The map above shows surface dew points at 00Z Thursday afternoon. That little moisture wrap around/dryline bulge area seems to be settling in around the northern Texas panhandle and the focus will be on storms developing along that section of the dryline and north of the bulge where the moisture wraps back into Colorado. How many storms will develop and where exactly they’ll develop is a bit uncertain right now, but the cap gets stronger as you head south along the dryline and the NAM is already stingy with convection, so I’d play north on this one. By 00Z CAPE and deep layer shear is definitely strong enough to support supercells, largely thanks to great directional shear along and north of the moisture wrap around portion of the dryline. It almost seems like most setups with dramatic turning in the 850-500 layer aren’t big time tornado producers. Seems like you usually get a couple, but it’s nothing major. Incredible structure with that type of turning though if other details fall into place. Low level shear doesn’t look to be real supportive of tornadoes until you start getting the low level jet cranking up around 7pm. I’ll wait until the HRRR picks up on this tomorrow before I start getting into convective evolution, but my expectation is for a supercell or two to be tracking through that area I boxed in red on the map later in the evening and it will pose a lower end, but decent tornado threat in the 6-10pm timeframe or so. It may be able to get down a solid tornado near or just after dark if convective evolution is favorable and we have a discrete supercell tracking through there with clean inflow from the south.

Beyond Thursday, we may have a three day stretch of chases. Nothing major, but with strong instability as you get into the weekend it doesn’t take a whole lot of shear. Each day is a little sketchy so I won’t get into forecast details yet, but the potential is there for there to be potential each day through Saturday lol. Check back for updates if you’re interested. I should be posting again tomorrow night.

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