Author Archives: Administrator

Tornado/Severe WX Outbreak Expected Thursday

A severe weather/tornado outbreak is expected across parts of south central Kansas and western Oklahoma tomorrow. Conditions could be particularly volatile along a warm front that will be lifting north through southern Kansas tomorrow afternoon. Extreme instability and strong low … Continue reading

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Update

Forecast seems on track still except for I think the strongest tornado potential may stay mostly south of the Kansas border. That may change if convection unfolds differently than short range model guidance and satellite would suggest. Kansas would still … Continue reading

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Update

Just a quick update before I get ready to head out. Still no major changes to the going forecast aside from adjusting the threat area for strong tornadoes a little farther south. I did this mainly because I think the … Continue reading

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Tuesday May 16th Tornado Forecast

I’m going to keep it fairly short tonight because I don’t have a lot to add and I want to chill out for a bit before bed since I’ll be on the road for god knows how many hours tomorrow. … Continue reading

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Forecast Update

Just looked over 12Z NAM run and no changes to the going forecast. My previous map posted above is still on track. The 12Z run of the NAM has actually strengthened low level shear around 00Z and the NAM is … Continue reading

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Update

I just checked the 00Z NAM and no major surprises. Basically everything looks the same. One thing I keep forgetting to address is the width of the warm sector. The NAM keeps showing a relatively narrow instability axis due to … Continue reading

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Tuesday May 16th Forecast

I’m still waiting on the 00Z NAM to come out, so I may make a brief update later tonight after I get a chance to go over that. For now I’m just working off of the 12Z and 18Z runs. … Continue reading

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Update

I drank quite a bit of vodka last night and am dragging ass this morning as a result. Didn’t get out of bed until a little after 11am and have been battling a hangover ever since. Due to my condition, … Continue reading

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5/13/17 Forecast Update

I really don’t have a whole lot to add to my previous posts. My feelings regarding the setup for Tuesday has stayed right on track with each model run. The NAM picked up on this setup with the 12Z run … Continue reading

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5/11 Extended Forecast

It looks like next week will likely be the most active week for severe weather that we’ve had in the plains so far this year. How extensive any tornado threat will be is still a bit hard to judge since … Continue reading

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