Comments for loadedgunchasing.com Blog

Comment on Update by Brad Jones

Brad Jones — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 14:17:09 +0000

Hey Mickey Tomm looks BIG per SPC

Comment on Update by Brad Jones

Brad Jones — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 09:33:21 +0000

Monday looks BIG according to SPC in your neck of woods into Oklahoma mention of possible upgrade to mdt risk

Comment on Update by Vicky

Vicky — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 23:22:09 +0000

Holy crap!! I’ve never seen hail that BIG!!

Comment on update by hairdoer

hairdoer — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 18:34:21 +0000

good luck!

Comment on Update by Randy

Randy — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:04:38 +0000

Looks like you are pretty spot on. I see the SPC just updated their outlook and pushed it to south central and southeastern Kansas (they must have seen your forecast!).

Comment on Update by hairdoer

hairdoer — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 07:13:32 +0000

You mean I should maybe charge my camera batteries finally!?!?!?

Comment on Forecast for Tuesday June 9th by Administrator

Administrator — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:40:29 +0000

Yeah no problem. I’m on spotter network so you can keep an eye on me. Just keep and eye on the frontal boundary tomorrow. That is going to be key. I just had to adjust my map northward to account for the GFS having the front farther north and SPC was leaning that way to. I basically split the difference and think the Wichita to Hutchinson is a good corridor for tornadoes. I want to be on the south edge of the precipitation once storms start firing. It will unfold pretty fast tomorrow, but I’ll make some posts on my blog while we are on the road.

Comment on Forecast for Tuesday June 9th by Brian Press

Brian Press — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:30:38 +0000

Hey Micky,

My name is Brian Press from So. Cal. Just wanted to thank you for putting up all these post on your blog. I read it religiously. So thank you. My brother and I are in Blackwell, OK right now in prep for tomorrow.

Just wanted to say thanks for making my storm chasing experience a better one and I love your stories. That’s soooo crazy about that hail you got yesterday. Shez!!!

Anyway, maybe I’ll see ya out there.. We are driving a little Prious.

Thanks again,

Bp.

Comment on Forecast for Friday and Saturday by Tornado Saturday?

Tornado Saturday? — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 15:51:14 +0000

[...] Gun Chasing thinks the Wichita area is a likely place for Tornaodoes this [...]

Comment on Forecast by Weekend weather thoughts

Weekend weather thoughts — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:22:45 +0000

[...] Loadedgunchasing.com thinks there is big potential for tornadoes this weekend. [...]

Comment on Long Range Forecast by Brad Jones

Brad Jones — Thu, 21 May 2009 11:39:55 +0000

Hey Mickey,Man this pattern is killing me im so bored i hate this summer pattern what in the heck has happen to get us in this mess? Also there may be a little hope on the GFS around June 4 or 5 MAYBE. There is always hope.

Comment on Forecast by Administrator

Administrator — Tue, 19 May 2009 01:33:15 +0000

Thanks for the comment. He definitely did get his money’s worth. He fought through World War II as a tail gunner in a bomber. He had a good wife, good family and was always content and happy with what he had. I just feel bad for my grandma since they were obviously very close and spent 24 hours a day with each other, so I’m a little nervousl about how she’ll react to this. I think she’ll be OK because we get her 24 hour care, but I have my doubts. It sucks when people reach that age. I’m not looking forward to having to deal with that with my parents. It’s got to be pretty devestation loosing a parent or spouse and I’ve been lucky enough not to. It just goes to show you how fragile life really is.

Comment on Forecast by damon hynes

damon hynes — Mon, 18 May 2009 23:57:12 +0000

Sounds like he got his money’s worth out of his time on this earth…

Comment on Forecast by Administrator

Administrator — Fri, 15 May 2009 06:21:46 +0000

The GFS has continually showed troughs deepening over the pacific into high ampitude waves for the past three weeks, but none of those have verified. Instead we have gotten low amplitude shortwaves hugging the canadian border. The GFS has also done complet 180’s on several forecasts (have to look back through my blog posts or notes to find the examples) but it has been far from good.
Good is a relative term, but when a model shows an upper air pattern that is associated routinely with tornado outbreaks over the central and southern plains 8 days out and then when the day actually comes we get a low amplitude high plains crapfest that’s not my idea of good.
The GFS is like any other model. Some time it will nail the forecast and other times it will be totally out to lunch. You are free to think what you want, but I can’t come up with a single time that the GFS had the forecast right 6 or 7 days out.
I sure as hell hope it’s right with the trough setting up over the west coast the end of May, or I’m going to have some explaining to do to my customers about why there aren’t any tornadoes this year. What an unbelievable season.

Comment on Forecast by steve

steve — Fri, 15 May 2009 06:05:35 +0000

I think long range models have been good this season. They have signaled a poor tornado season and thats whats been happening. Hopefully June comes up with a set up for a tornado outbreak!

Comment on Forecast by hairdoer

hairdoer — Mon, 11 May 2009 15:20:07 +0000

Have you checked out f5data.com? I watched the video and thought it might be something you would like. Just and FYI for ya.

Comment on Tuesday Back in Play??? by Brad Jones

Brad Jones — Sun, 10 May 2009 21:58:32 +0000

Thier has been some talk by the weather service in Norman about WED being an active severe weather day inOklahoma. They said could happen in their forecast disscussion this morning. I guess we see

Comment on Next Tuesday Forecast by Brad Jones

Brad Jones — Sun, 10 May 2009 17:36:00 +0000

Thanks a bunch.

Comment on Brief Forecast Update by steve

steve — Sun, 10 May 2009 03:54:06 +0000

Yes, this pattern will break before the end of the month. I can’t agree with the ’summer pattern now’ theory.
If it was summer why are the gulf states getting so much severe weather of late and currently.

Comment on Next Tuesday Forecast by Administrator

Administrator — Sat, 09 May 2009 19:37:46 +0000

I’m very confident saying that there won’t be anything worth mentioning in the next week, but I wouldn’t trust the models beyond that and I haven’t been watching them that far out. I’m just so disgusted with this unbreakable zonal flow pattern that I rarely even check the models. We are wasting a lot of good chase season with this crap. Sooner or later the pattern witll change though. Early in the season we had the wave train pattern too far south with too short of wave lengths so no moisture could be drawn in for each shortwave. Now we have almost the opposite pattern problem with zonal flow over the high plains with only low amplitude disturbances coming through.

In response to all your other questions here you go. This site has everything you could ever need for forecasting. http://www.theweathercompany.com/toolbox.html
If you scroll down to the numerical model output category on this page and select WXcaster under that it will take you to this page http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm which has tons of links on it. You can look at the ensemble forecasts, model comparison pages and everything else you could want. You just have to spend time exploring through there. The Canadian Ensemble Forecast System (CEFS) sucks btw so ignore it. Ensemble or spaghetti charts are basically numerous model runs with slight tweaks between each model (models are tons of equations) and it shows the overall consensus, which is very helpful. Just explore the model output stuff. There is more data than you could ever use on these pages.

Comment on Next Tuesday Forecast by Brad Jones

Brad Jones — Sat, 09 May 2009 13:35:51 +0000

Hey Mickey, Is it me or do the models realy stink right now? Looking at GFS it does not appear to show anything the next two weeks. I may be wrong. Also is their a site where you can compare models side by side? And is their a model besides the GFS that goes beyond 1 week? Thanks for the updates on the forecast.

Comment on Forecast by Brad Jones

Brad Jones — Thu, 07 May 2009 18:41:02 +0000

hey mickey, good call. It looks like Pauls Valley where i live is in the bullseye. I guess time will tell. Ingrediants seem to be comming together tomm for some sinifigant severe weather.

Comment on Forecast Later by steve

steve — Thu, 07 May 2009 09:00:32 +0000

Models seem to flip flop for next week between zonal and a western trough/upper SW.

Comment on 5/05/09 Forecast Update by Brendon Lindsey

Brendon Lindsey — Tue, 05 May 2009 04:00:13 +0000

Hey well I am wish casting… do you think Thursday East Central OK I-40 Corridor has any potential… instability is there. models breaking out precip I just havent heard anyone say anything… Oh and when forecasting… when there is not really a noticeable dryline or low… but there is instability, lift, moisture, and high temps, what do I look at next?

Comment on 5/05/09 Forecast Update by Administrator

Administrator — Mon, 04 May 2009 13:38:56 +0000

They are saying that becaus the GFS and European have both now changed and have zonal flow (straight line) instead of a trough developing over the Rockies. They bring up potential on Thursday and Friday because that is the time period when the jet streak moves through the plains. I’m on board with them now since both modes changed, but it goes to show you how inacccurate the models can be. They’ve been especially had this year. Even the Ensemble members had consensus on a west coast trough developing and affecting the plains on Saturday and Sunday. I don’t know what in the hell is going on.

You aren’t likey to get anything real good out of zonal flow. If you remember back to my forecasts about Saturday and Sunday I kept bitching about this being a low amplitude wave, which is basically the height of the wave horizontally when looking at a weather map. The GFS had a run yesterday that I forecast off of where that jet streak dove south, creating a deepening trough over the Rockies and that would have affected the plains over the weekend. Now the jet streak stays within zonal flow and we probably won’t get a whole lot out of it.
Last night’s 00Z run does show another trough deepening off the California coast though, which again would be the typical severe weather pattern we should have this time of year, but who the hell knows what will happen. I just want a classic tornado outbreak.

Comment on 5/05/09 Forecast Update by Brad Jones

Brad Jones — Mon, 04 May 2009 13:17:50 +0000

Hey Mickey, Seems like spc is not outlooking anything for Saturday is that because it is still early in the week? But they have been talking about Thursday and Friday.

Comment on Forecast and Reports by John M.

John M. — Sun, 03 May 2009 23:51:46 +0000

I think that last paragraph summarized what I felt about my storm decisions, as I saw the same crews you did while waiting in Camargo (saw all three things mentioned while in Camargo). Originally from Douglass, KS, it ticked me off flying in to Tulsa from Phoenix and seeing a tornado report near Douglass on Saturday, but didn’t feel too bad about the one near Wichita on Sunday. I’ll be out in mid-May to try it again.

Comment on Long Range Forecast by Administrator

Administrator — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 22:22:54 +0000

Actually I haven’t. I’m one of the ignorant ones that doesn’t know what twitter is exactly, but I hear about it all the time. I know basically what it does. I’ll look into it because I really want to be able to update the blog during chase days all the way up until initiation. I’m definitely going to look into it. Thanks man.

On another note the cu field kind of died over the last several hours ahead of the OFB in the Enid to Woodward area, but now cu is popping right along the boundary again. We are getting plenty of sunshine here in Enid. This is the hottest muggiest day I’ve had this year. All we need is a storm and some half way decent mid level flow and we’ll be in business. I’m starting to doubt that will happen lol, but there is still plenty of time.

Comment on Long Range Forecast by Bobby Rozzell

Bobby Rozzell — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 21:49:37 +0000

Have you thought about using Twitter to keep people up to date when you are chasing or things look like they might get bad. There are plug-ins for Wordpress that would put your Twitter messages on your blog as well so you could up date this page for those who aren’t on Twitter.
Just a thought,
Bobby

Comment on No Internet Today by Eric

Eric — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 04:33:24 +0000

Hey this is Eric from the Verizon store. Sorry to hear about your aircard. Mine was working fine today thankfully. My brother and I got on the storm near Udall then headed into Winfield. Got some good rotating clouds, but like you said everything kinda crapped out. I don’t know how it would have been if I didn’t have my card running. I should be heading out late morning/early afternoon. Better luck to everyone tomorrow I hope. SPC has predicted a higher probability for tornados tomorrow (45%) versus today’s 15% chance. Hit me up if you need any help with that card.