Update

I just took a close look at the 00Z NAM and I see no reason to change my previous map because it syncs up extremely well with what the latest run is showing. There are two places I’m looking for a tornadic storm to develop tomorrow. One would be along the western extent of the warm front where it gets close to the dryline, which should be near the I35/I70 interchange by late afternoon and the other place would be any tail end cominng off the dryline bulge area just south of there from West of Wichita up towards Hutchinson. The best paramaters for tornadic supercells have been consistently coming together in the triangle roughl bounded by Salina-Wichita-Topeka with the NAM. That area is just downstream from both the areas of potential development for a tornadic storm tomorrow.  If I had to pick a bullseye for a tornado tomorrow I’d go over the northern half of that area I boxed in on the latest map.

I also started looking closer at tornado potential. I pulled forecast soundings and hodographs from Salina over towards Emporia. Low level hodographs really enlarge over that area as you move east and get into the backing surface winds and stronger 850mb winds. 0-1km SRH kicks up >150 which isn’t huge but certainly respectable. Below is a forecast hodograph for 00Z just northwest of Emporia.

Not bad at all for an early October chase. With that much curvature in the lower half of the hodograph, strong deep layer shear and overall good thermodynamics I do think a strong tornado is a possibility if a persistent discrete supercell can track through that environment tomorrow. That’s a fairly big if, but the potential is there IMO.

I will take a look at models in the morning and update once I do.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *