Today

I think I’m going to sit this one out. I hate veering low level winds and I don’t like chasing the Ozarks. I do think the Ozarks can be avoided, but it still can be a shit show chasing that general area. If I was chasing I’d target Joplin and I’d expect initiation in the 5pm time frame near the MO/KS border area. The HRRR shows a broken line developing from near the low back to the SW along the cold front/surface trough/dryline/whatever you want to call it. HRRR also puts a tail end to the more robust convection in the NE Oklahoma/SW Missouri area. For reasons mentioned in the previous forecast I’d go with the SW portion of Missouri area and take the tail end storm or any dominant cell tracking through that area that has somewhat unimpeded inflow. The overlap of good surface based CAPE and good low level shear just isn’t that good today. As hodographs improve as you move east into better directional shear and closer to the LLJ you move out of the warm sector and surface based CAPE. That being said, I think the tornado threat will be seriously impeded by the poor directional shear/veering in the lower levels. The Joplin to Springfield corridor and just south of there is where you may eek out a weak tornado or two. I’ll sit today out though since I don’t like the tornado potential that much. I am going to start taking a close look at tomorrow’s setup this afternoon. I think you may have a similar set of problems with tomorrow’s setup, but I very well may chase tomorrow down in the OKC and SW Oklahoma area. I’ll get back to you on that one after I haveĀ  a chance to forecast.

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