Extended Forecast

gfsUS_sfc_30mbdewp_237Well there isn’t aren’t any good severe/tornado setups coming up in the next 240 hours, but I do think there is reason for optimism. Just glanced over both the GFS and ECMWF. Anytime I do long range forecasting I try to focus on just the synoptic scale upper air pattern, the quality of moisture over the gulf and run to run trends. Getting into more detail or putting much stock in any given run tends to make you look stupid in my experience lol. So for now we are just going to go over the bigger picture and avoid any detail. The gulf is going to take a pretty big hit this weekend as an east coast trough deepens and shoves quality moisture back into the southern gulf. Behind that east coast trough the gulf will begin recovering. The above picture is dew points 240hrs out. Ignoring the exact values is probably wise when looking 240 hours out, but what I do think you can pay attention to and is a good sign is that the surface high is shifting east over Florida and setting us up for  a good fetch of moisture back into the NW portion of the gulf and southern Texas towards the end of next week. At the same time, both the ECMWF and GFS have our upper air pattern transitioning to more of a zonal flow pattern the end of next week. It shows several lower amplitude disturbances working through the jet stream, but again no need to look at that level of detail this far out. What is important though is that with the gulf primed and the jet stream swinging back south all we need is a wave with a little bit of amplitude to tap into good quality moisture over the gulf. So basically there isn’t any chase opportunity in the near future, but as we get into early April it is looking like the synoptic scale stage will be set for a good trough to tap into quality moisture and when that happens this time of year you tend to get tornadoes. I can use a short break because I still have equipment issues to sort out. After another hour on the phone with Cradlepoint tech support today I finally got my ATT and Verizon air cards both working. That’s a huge relief. Unfortunately as soon as I got that problem fixed I ran into another one with GR Level 3 not downloading data. The internet connection is fine, but for some reason it won’t download. I tried switching off Allisonhouse and over to the NWS server, still didn’t work. As soon as I get done typing this I was going to check to make sure I’m running the most updated version. If that doesn’t fix it then I’m going to have to solicit help from my chaser friends on Facebook because I’m lost. I still have a backlog of other equipment matters to take care of. I still haven’t gone up to KWCH because of the problems with the cradle point, but I need to get up there so they can help me with a few things. The tech guy up there was going to show me how to put all my cameras on an HDMI switch so I can stream from different cameras. He was also going to put some software on my phone that will allow me to do a field report/interview and feed it back to them. I need to have that for damage shots and to help with immediate coverage in the unfortunate even that a town does get hit. And finally I need to get the software we use to feed video to KWCH put on my backup laptop so if need be I can feed from that while I’m still chasing and using my primary laptop for chasing. Lots to do and not much time to get it done before tornado season really get going. I have a few other pieces of equipment I need to buy too. Just ordered a new gps puck the other day since my current one is acting sketchy. I think I’m going to upgrade to a new wireless amp. I have three of them now from Wilson, but going to a new one buys me an additional 25db. Not sure that’s worth $400, but there’s something about having as strong of an internet connection as possible that gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling. I’ll try to get a picture posted this week of my current equipment setup. It’s a pain in the ass to get it all working properly because I have so much shit, but once you get those kinks worked it is a  pretty impressive setup. Anyway, enough rambling about equipment. I’ll get another forecast post up here in the next few days so check back if you’re interested.

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