Sorry for not getting a forecast up yet. I had to work late and I haven’t been very excited about the setup for this Thursday or the trough behind it that should come through the plains Sunday-Monday. The big reason why I’m not excited about any of those days is veering 850’s. I hate veering low level winds. You can still get some decent helicity values with setups like that because of strong wind speeds and there is still turning in the low level wind fields, but they are almost always poor tornado producing setups. The big reason why there is veering low level winds with both of these next two troughs is because they have a positive tilt as they come into the plains. That causes problems beyond just poor low level shear for tornadoes. I don’t want to ramble too much because I’m tired, but you tend to get NE-SW initiating boundaries and storm motions somewhat parallel to the boundary which doesn’t bode well for convective evolution and getting storms out into the warm sector. Storm motions tend to be faster since there isn’t much turning in the wind fields. It’s basically a shit show of sorts. And unfortunately it looks like we are going to have low level winds veering. Now I’m not ruling out a stray tornado or two, but these aren’t looking like good tornado producing setups at the moment. I’m going to hold off on posting forecast details for each day of interest tonight since I’m dragging ass and want to lay down, but I will touch briefly on the days to watch. Check back tomorrow for a full forecast post. I’ll sneak out of work at a decent hour tomorrow to make sure I get a forecast posted for both the Thursday and Sunday-Monday setups. The other days SPC is highlighting are somewhat lower risk days so I’ll probably only briefly skim over those unless something changes. Here is a quick sentence or two on each of the days of interest though.
Thursday, the main area of interest is going to be a dryline/cold front triple point. At the moment it is looking like the triple point will setup somewhere near central into east central Oklahoma. As far as surface boundaries and where you’d traditionally target a setup like this it is similar to last weeks severe weather event. The triple point and/or closest area along the frontal boundary where surface winds back a little more are the places that tend to have the best shot of producing tornadoes. Below is a map just threw together quickly that shows the primary area of interest and where I’d target as of now. I’ll get more on that posted tomorrow.
Beyond Thursday the next period of interest is Sunday and Monday and the next trough in line ejects into the plains. Moisture return is a bit of a question mark as it will need to recover quickly after a cold front shoves decent moisture south in the wake of Thursday’s trough. I am more interested in Sunday than Monday since I’m first and foremost a tornado chaser. On Sunday the 850mb winds haven’t begun to veer too badly yet, keeping a decent directional component to shear profiles. Moisture return could be iffy for Sunday though. We’ll get into that tomorrow. The focus for convection will be a dryline across the central plains. Right now central Oklahoma and south central Kansas are looking like the likely target areas. It’s nothing impressive at the moment, but with the potential for strong wind fields we do need to keep an eye on this setup since a few minor changes could amplify the tornado potential.
And finally Monday may be a decent severe weather day, but the tornado potential looks pretty poor, at least in the plains. Low level winds veer badly as the surface low pushes off to the northeast and you get little to know directional shear over the warm sector. Bad for a lot of reasons.
Anyway, sorry for not getting into the forecast much but I’m dead tired. I’ll get into it a little more tomorrow so check back for details. Also it is still looking like we are going to have an active early and middle April so regardless of what these first two troughs do there are plenty of opportunities ahead.