I have been glancing over the GFS, ECMWF and GEFS spaghetti charts and although they aren’t showing anything major, I want to see another couple runs before I say much about what is coming up. I just got burned by the GFS a week or two ago on my extended forecast and I don’t want to make the same mistake this time.
Tomorrow is somewhat interesting. I’m not going to chase, but I’ll probably take a closer look in the morning and post my target if I was. Two areas of interest, one being the kind of moisture wrap around area in the Texas panhandle and wester Oklahoma and then the dryline further south in Texas. Shear profiles seem clearly better for tornadoes along the dryline portion of the threat area for tomorrow, but I haven’t looked closely so I’ll hold off on a target and details until morning.
In the extended range, Sunday and early next week may be a period of interest after the cutoff low that will track through the southern plains over the next few days pushes off the east coast. After that the GFS hints at some activity with some southern stream disturbances coming through the plains. That’s way too far out for me to comment on until I see more model runs and consistency though.
I’ll try to get a target and brief forecast discussion on tomorrow’s setup posted in the morning. Until then…