Today

E_Texas_vis

Just a few quick thoughts listed in the map on today’s setup. Tricky little bastard with a lead impulse kicking off crapvection this morning and trying to figure out how that will play into the potential for tornadoes this afternoon. My best guess is that with the best heating south of the area boxed in red and the moist tongue pushing up from the south, you’ll get your best moisture axis/thermal axis overlay over the southwest portion of where SPC put the moderate risk up. The area I boxed in red kind of represents the northern periphery of this area and also where the high resolution models want to put a tail end of convection later this afternoon. Picking off a dominant storm in that area, which could come off the dryline or along the outflow from the crapvection I’d imagine (haven’t looked real closely at things since I’m not chasing but cu is bubbling along the edge of the outflow from early day storms0 is going to be the key I think. I’d setup between Brownwood and Ballinger right now and watch satellite. As things unfold over the next couple hours it should be a little easier to focus in on an exact target, but I do think the best storm will come out of that area this afternoon. Good luck if you’re out. I’m going to try to keep an eye on things and do a little virtual chasing this afternoon so I’ll try to update if I have time.

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