No changes to the going extended forecast so see the previous post for details. Just glanced over the GFS, GEFS and ECMWF. The GFS continues to hold steady with a southern stream trough just starting to nose into the plains Tuesday afternoon with sort of a day before the day setup before really moving into the plains on Wednesday. The GFS tends to be fast so I’m still sticking with Wednesday as the next chase day. Long ways out still so you can’t take much seriously, but the GFS has been consistent for several days and the ECMWF is in general agreement with a southern stream trough upstream on day 7. The ECMWF won’t actually pickup on the trough coming into the plains though until tomorrow. Decent moisture return ahead of this trough is plausible. GEFS is showing fairly high probabilities of decent CAPE as well.
I’m not going to get into the period beyond next Wednesday yet, but it’s worth mentioning the GFS is also holding steady with an active pattern beyond Wednesday with an additional southern stream wave behind Wednesday’s and then a more significant high amplitude trough with the polar front jet sets up over the western US. Looking that far out is nothing more than wishcasting, but it is nice to see a more significant high amplitude trough. That’s usually the type of setup that brings you the widespread outbreaks in the plains.
I’ll keep an eye on the models and probably update again some time tomorrow, so check back if you’re interested.