Forecast Update

Oh I’ve been lazy on the forecasting lol. Actually I’ve been working a lot this week and haven’t had much time. I’m ready to take off Thursday though if it looks half way decent. I’m dragging ass and I want to go to sleep early so this is going to be brief. I didn’t look much at tomorrow’s setup, but I’m not very impressed. I think Thursday may have the better potential for tornadoes, but it’s not terribly impressive either. Thursday will have really strong instability, but high LCL heights and weak wind speeds will mitigate the tornado threat. It’s more of a late spring/summer setup where the area north of the surface low/moisture wrap around is the main threat area. An outflow reinforced warm front/trough is also an area of interest. Although wind fields are weak, good directional shear may be enough for deep layer shear to be favorable for supercells. LCL height are high at 00Z except for north of the front. Later in the day though they may get low enough for a lower end tornado threat. Hodographs have good shape with a little curvature due to backing low level winds, but they aren’t very long. The area I’m focused in on is kind of by Colby, KS late Thursday afternoon and along the warm front just east of there. I’ll get a map up tomorrow night when I take a closer look.

Also I have a draft put together on El Reno that I’ll post soon. I started on it Sunday on the 2 year anniversary of the El Reno tornado, I just haven’t finished it up. It’s really long lol. I go over our experience from that day, what happened to Tim Samaras and why I think it happened, and I go over why the El Reno has been labeled the most dangerous tornado in storm observing history. I have a lot of links to other people’s El Reno footage that helps to explain what that tornado did and why it was so dangerous along with some pictures. Anyway I’ll get that posted as soon as I finish it up too.

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