June 6 Forecast Update

I’ve been looking at the models debating whether or not I want to make the long drive tomorrow up into northeast Nebraska/possible SE South Dakota. A lot of how tomorrow will unfold and the extent of any tornado threat will likely hinge on how extensive morning storms are and whether or not they disrupt instability and extent and evolution of storms developing behind morning convection. I think it’s pretty clear that the best overlap of the mid and low level jets will be over NE Nebraska and SE South Dakota, question is will you get decent clearing and will storms evolve in a favorable way during the afternoon to maximize any tornado threat. I can’t pull forecast soundings on COD for some reason (need to jump over to twister data and do that real quick), but I think shear profiles will be fairly favorable for tornadic supercells up there. I’d say it’s a 5%-10% tornado prob kind of threat for tornadoes if you want to go by SPC guidelines. I’d put the greatest tornado threat  in the NE/SD border area or south of there wherever there is more of a tail end or discrete convection if things are packed in tight farther north. I would expect real quick linear transition if the NAM is telling the truth, but storms could be kind of clustered in farther north.

anyway, my plan is to get up early to take a look at data and I’ll make the call on chasing then. I could go either way. It’s a Saturday so I feel lazy not chasing, especially after missing Colorado tornadoes the last two days, but it’s a long drive for a somewhat mediocre tornado day and it’s supposed to be 90 here tomorrow so going to the pool and doing a little drinking tomorrow nights sounds good too. This is usually the kind of setup that makes me think if of a poster that was on the Chive that said “do more of what makes you awesome”. lol that always comes to mind when I’m being lazy and don’t want to chase. The other one I really like that I swear I’m going to put up in my apartment is this picture of a guy in a kayak going over this huge waterfall and it says in real big letter “believe in yourself” and then underneath it in smaller letters it says “because the rest of us think you’re an idiot”. That one really fits storm chasing. I’ll figure tomorrow out in the AM. BTW looks like a more significant trough may come through the plains around next weekend. I’m trying to keep that in mind too when making a decision on chasing. I can chase both, but next weekend may be the kind of setup I head north and stay there a couple days for if it looks like a significant trough. May get a couple of chase days and if it looks like there could be strong tornadoes I’m going to be there.

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