11/11/15 Forecast

111115 Forecast MapI’ve been in Chicago on business the last couple days so I haven’t had much time to forecast. I just glanced over data and threw together a quick map so take it for what it’s worth. I do think that despite the weak directional shear with the low stacking we will see a few tornadoes tomorrow. Little bit of an S shape to hodographs which I’m not a fan of (not a big fan of hard negative tilt troughs for that matter), but with really strong deep layer shear, weak but workable SBCAPE and decent convective coverage I think a few storms will manage to get the job done in the area I boxed in red although I think this is more of a general severe weather setup than a good tornado setup. Storms should be low topped with the equilibrium level near 450mb on the few forecast soundings I checked. Storms will be hauling ass too which will make chasing very difficult tomorrow. I didn’t look at storm motions, but especially over the southern portion of the area I boxed in red where the 850 and 500 jets overlap they will be moving AOA 50mph I’d imagine. Northern Missouri can be pretty sketchy so about your only chance tomorrow is going to be staying out ahead of the storm until it starts to show tornado potential. At least that’s how I usually play days like this. Stay downstream and try to stay ahead as the storm as it closes the gap until you think it’s getting close to going tornadic. Then you drop back to get a visual on the updraft base and stay with it as long as you can until it pulls away. Basically try to maximize your time on the storm during the window when you think it will have the best tornado potential because you aren’t keeping up tomorrow lol.

I would chase if I could (if for no better reason than just to get it out of my system before winter) but unfortunately I’m flying back from Chicago tomorrow night so I’m out. Although I won’t get to chase I will probably get to see storms since we are going to have to fly right through them on my way back to Wichita lol. If I was chasing I’d either play near the low or I’d setup along the MO/IA border area. I haven’t looked hard enough to decide which yet, but if I get a chance tomorrow I’ll try to update with a specific target. I think either area could produce, but it’s not that good of a tornado setup IMO. Sorry for the lack of detail on the forecast btw, but I just don’t have that much time to spend on it. Good luck if you’re heading out.

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