Forecast Update

I was busy at work today so I only glanced over the morning runs. Not a whole lot of change to the going forecast ATTM. I read over SPC’s day 2 outlook and it seems about on the same page. There are concerns about morning crapvection. They don’t mention anything about the veering vs. backing low level winds, but it’s not their style to do so either, especially outside of a day 1 outlook. I was kind of surprised they didn’t throw out an enhanced risk area in the update to the Day 2, but if it looks like morning storms won’t mess things up I’d expect to see an enhanced risk for parts of Kansas in the Day 1. I’ll update later tonight once the 00Z NAM run comes out. I may change my mind once I forecast tonight, but as things stand now I’d throw out a 5% tornado probability in the central plains and possibly upgrade to 10% over portions of Kansas later in the day if precip isn’t an issue, there decent 850-500 crossover (low levels aren’t veering), CAM guidance looks favorable for discrete storms and moisture return is on track for low 60 dewpoints in eastern Kansas. Long list of caveats there I know lol. Anyway, check back later for the forecast update if you’re interested.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *